Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fonseca Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $60.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +7% if it rises |
| Chateau Sigalas Rabaud Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $43.19 $71.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $45.99 | ▲ 7.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cockburn's Port Late Bottled Vintage dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Alvear PX Sherry Spain dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| La Fleur Renaissance Sauternes dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Manzanilla 5 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Amontillado 15 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $150 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| Castello di Meleto Vin Santo di Chianti Classico dessert · Tuscany · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Rieussec Sauternes 2017 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $22.53 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2023 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $50.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2019 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Warre's Warrior Reserve Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Emilio Lustau East India Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 $27.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 43% premium | 14% typically +7% if it rises |
| Warres Vintage Port 2016 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $65.99 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dios Baco Elite Amontillado Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.23 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | 1% |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $140 | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Broadbent Rainwater Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $38.93 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dios Baco Esnobista Moscatel Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.33 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 51% premium | 1% |
| Harvey's Bristol Cream Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.63 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | 52% premium | 1% |
| Hartley And Gibson Pedro Ximenez Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | 52% premium | 5% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $52.99 $56.99 Sale | ▲ 14.0% | — | 54% premium | 2% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Feuerheerd's Twenty Year Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +10% if it rises |
| Lustau San Emilio PX Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 15 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $53.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Cream Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $46.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Port 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $148 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Chateau Laufaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $108 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dow's Late Bottled Vintage Ruby Port 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $27.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2017 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $74.99 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2017 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $28.73 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau D'Yquem Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $550 | 0.0% | — | 80% premium | <1% |
| Graham's Vintage Port 2020 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $89.93 $300 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2021 dessert · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $580 | 0.0% | — | 87% premium | <1% |
| Florio Marsala Superiore Riserva Semisecco 2015 dessert · 750 ml | $14.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 87% premium | <1% |
| Zigu Dessert Wine Kakheti dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.73 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 89% premium | 1% |
| Bruichladdich Islay Single Malt Port Charlotte 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | 92% premium | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Oremus Tokaji Mandolas Dry Furmint Tokaj 2020 dessert · 750 ml | $14.73 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 94% premium | <1% |
| Disznoko Tokaji 6 Puttonyos 2016 dessert · 500 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | 98% premium | <1% |
| Chateau de Malle Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Warre's Otima 92 Colheita Tawny Porto 1992 dessert · Douro · 500 ml | $40.19 $66.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 101% premium | <1% |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $220 | 0.0% | — | 106% premium | 13% typically +10% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Port 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $69.93 $245 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 113% premium | <1% |
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