Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Vintage-dated premium and luxury wines, ranked by the model's chance of a list-price rise within a year. These are retail shelf prices at a state retailer, not auction or secondary-market prices, so treat them as a signal of retail pricing momentum rather than investment returns.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2021 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $276 $280 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2019 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $300 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2021 dessert · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $580 | 0.0% | — | 87% premium | <1% |
| Disznoko Tokaji 6 Puttonyos 2016 dessert · 500 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | 98% premium | <1% |
| Chateau D'Yquem Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $550 | 0.0% | — | 80% premium | <1% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2014 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $186 $300 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vinhas Velhas Vintage Porto 350th Anniversay Edition 2020 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $56.93 $190 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 361% premium | <1% |
| Graham's Vintage Port 2020 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $89.93 $300 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $168 $280 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 375 ml | $59.99 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2017 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $74.99 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warres Vintage Port 2016 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $65.99 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2007 dessert · Douro · 1500 ml | $47.93 $160 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $38.93 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |