Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Vintage-dated premium and luxury wines, ranked by the model's chance of a list-price rise within a year. These are retail shelf prices at a state retailer, not auction or secondary-market prices, so treat them as a signal of retail pricing momentum rather than investment returns.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Duckhorn Discussion Red Wine 2020 red · 750 ml | $130 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 443% premium | <1% |
| Jarvis Chardonnay Napa Valley 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $52.53 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 66% premium | <1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Wehlener Sonnenuhr Mosel Auslese 2020 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $40.03 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 15% premium | <1% |
| Kathryn Hall Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $137 $225 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Latour Giraud Cuvee Carmen Pommard 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $38.53 $75.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Marquis de Calon Segur Saint Estephe 2021 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine des Heritiers Beaune Boucherottes 1er Cru Rouge 2021 red · 750 ml | $21.93 $75.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Gevrey Chambertin 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $27.43 $86.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mollydooker Carnival Of Love Shiraz Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mollydooker Enchanted Path Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Plumpjack Estate Merlot Oakville 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rombauer Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bond Quella Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $400 $800 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bond St Eden Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $240 $800 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 443% premium | <1% |
| Bond Vecina Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $240 $800 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 632% premium | <1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.93 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calera Mills Vineyard Pinot Noir Mt Harlan 2017 red · 750 ml | $40.03 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calera Mills Vineyard Pinot Noir Mt Harlan 2018 red · 750 ml | $24.93 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calera Ryan Vineyard Pinot Noir Mt Harlan 2018 red · 750 ml | $24.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Canon Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2019 red · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $23.13 $77.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 22% below | <1% |
| Chateau La Dominique Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $43.53 $83.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Pape Clement Pessac Leognan Blanc 2018 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $100 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Pichon Baron Pauillac 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $145 $270 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 195% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $150 $300 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $144 $231 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau la Dominique Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $23.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cliff Lede Cabernet Sauvignon Stags Leap District 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $21.93 $81.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| David Arthur Proprietary Red Wine Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Jean Louis Chave Hermitage Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $210 $350 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 183% premium | <1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Les Preuses Chablis Grand Cru 2020 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $90.03 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Vaulorent Chablis 1er Cru 2021 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $37.73 $126 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de Vauroux Chablis Bougros Grand Cru 2018 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $24.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Frog's Leap Cabernet Sauvignon Estate Grown Rutherford Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gundlach Bundschu Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma Valley Reserve 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $83.99 $140 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 161% premium | <1% |
| Harlan Estate Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $480 $1,600 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 1080% premium | <1% |
| Joh Jos Graacher Himmelreich Riesling Mosel Kabinett 2020 white · Mosel · 1500 ml | $86.93 $145 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Graacher Himmelreich Mosel Auslese 2011 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $75.03 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Pinot Noir Anderson Valley 2021 red · 750 ml | $33.53 $112 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $33.53 $112 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Petit Lion du Marquis de Las Cases Saint Julien 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $42.03 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Petit Lion du Marquis de Las Cases Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Les Boudots Nuits Saint Georges 1er Cru Rouge 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $65.03 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 18% premium | <1% |
| Marques De Riscal Baron De Chirel Tempranillo Rioja 2017 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $23.73 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 319% premium | <1% |
| Penfolds Bin 407 Cabernet Sauvignon South Australia 2019 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Montestefano 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $49.73 $82.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Ovello 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $23.43 $82.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Rabaja 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $49.73 $82.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Reserve de la Comtesse Pauillac 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $23.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Winery The Estates Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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