Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Smoke Ten Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calera Ryan Vineyard Pinot Noir Mt Harlan 2018 red · 750 ml | $24.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Paul Hobbs Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $23.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Roederer Blanc de Blanc Champagne 2017 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $125 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| San Felice Campogiovanni Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $45.59 $75.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pol Roger Brut Champagne 2018 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $140 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Montefico 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Rouget Pomerol 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Pora 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | 11% premium | 1% |
| Kosta Browne Cerise Vineyard Pinot Noir Anderson Valley 2019 red · 750 ml | $90.03 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Howell Mountain Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $65.73 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Marc Morey and Fils En Virondot Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $130 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Oak Knoll Vaca Vista Vineyard 2019 red · 750 ml | $89.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cheval Blanc Saint Emilion Grand Cru Classe 2021 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $225 $750 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Addendum Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Masi Costasera Amarone della Valpolicella Classico Riserva 2017 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $29.93 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 12% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Smith Haut Lafitte Pessac Leognan Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $100 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Phelan Segur Saint Estephe 2023 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $79.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Domaine Gerard Tremblay Vaudesir Chablis Grand Cru 2021 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $46.13 $76.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Antinori Antica Estate Townsend Vineyard Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $30.93 $115 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Barolo Ravera 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $56.73 $94.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cos D'Estournel Saint Estephe Rouge 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $80.93 $270 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Piper Heidsieck Rare Brut Champagne Millesime 2008 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $80.93 $270 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Clinet Pomerol 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $125 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau La Pointe Pomerol 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $75.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Chateau Haut Bages Liberal Pauillac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $140 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $480 $800 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2021 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $70.93 $260 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Antonin Guyon Les Cras Chambolle Musigny 2018 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Honig Cabernet Sauvignon Bartolucci Vineyard St Helena Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $68.93 $115 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Gaps Crown Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $44.73 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 14% premium | <1% |
| Odette Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Stag's Leap District 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $49.93 $170 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta San Guido Sassicaia Bolgheri Sassicaia 2022 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $305 $310 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Wehlener Sonnenuhr Mosel Auslese 2020 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $40.03 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 15% premium | <1% |
| Tenuta dell Ornellaia Ornellaia Bolgheri Superiore 2020 red · Tuscany · 375 ml | $108 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaux Freres Beaux Freres Pinot Noir Ribbon Ridge Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $82.43 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| William Fevre Vaillons Chablis 1er Cru 2021 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $25.73 $88.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Louis Jadot Meursault 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| La Spinona Barolo Bergera Pezzole Sori Gepin 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $79.99 $84.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Podere Brizio Brunello di Montalcino Riserva 2013 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $99.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sea Smoke Chardonnay Santa Rita Hills 2021 white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $76.43 $102 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 16% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Giscours Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $153 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Silverado Vineyards SOLO Cabernet Sauvignon Stags Leap District Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penfolds St. Henri Shiraz Australia 2020 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $44.93 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frog's Leap Cabernet Sauvignon Estate Grown Rutherford Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Auslese Graacher Himmelreich 2022 white · 750 ml | $23.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penfolds Bin 389 Red Blend Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $23.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cos D'Estournel Saint Estephe Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $480 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taittinger Brut Champagne Millesime 2015 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $110 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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