Sea Smoke Chardonnay Santa Rita Hills 2021
white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · 2021 vintage · tracked since Q1 2024
Shelf price, Q3 2026
$76.43 $102 Clearance
11 quarters on record · 0 list-price changes · on sale in 0
List-price change, past year
0.0%
Past 5 years: —
Outlook for the next 12 months
<1% chance of a rise
typically +6% · <1% chance of a cut (typically -23%)
List priceSale / clearance priceForecast (median)80% forecast range
Show prices and forecast as a table
| Quarter | List | Sale | Forecast (80% range) | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2027 | $102 ($102–$102) | <1% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $102 ($102–$102) | <1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $102 ($102–$102) | <1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $102 ($102–$102) | <1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $102 | $76.43 | ||
| Q2 2026 | $102 | $76.43 | ||
| Q1 2026 | $102 | $76.43 | ||
| Q4 2025 | $102 | $76.43 | ||
| Q3 2025 | $102 | |||
| Q2 2025 | $102 | |||
| Q1 2025 | $102 | |||
| Q4 2024 | $102 | |||
| Q3 2024 | $102 | |||
| Q2 2024 | $102 | |||
| Q1 2024 | $102 |
Chance the list price will differ from today's $102
By
Higher
Lower
Q4 2026
<1%
<1%
Q1 2027
<1%
<1%
Q2 2027
<1%
<1%
Q3 2027
<1%
<1%
Fair price
$88.15
Comparable wines cost $53.45–$90.65 (80% range). At $102 it carries a 16% premium: often reputation or scarcity the model can't see.
Typical drinking window
2022–2027
In its window now · rule of thumb, typical for luxury white wine from Santa Barbara
Why this outlook?
Get a plain-English explanation of this wine's forecast, fair price and vintage outlook, written by Amazon Nova on Amazon Bedrock using only the numbers on this page.
What if?
Change today's price or promotion and the model re-scores this wine live. It is currently on clearance.
Promotion
Other vintages
Each vintage is tracked as its own wine.
| Vintage | Last listed | Shelf price | 1yr History | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Listed now | $63.03 $105 Clearance | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2021 (this page) | Listed now | $76.43 $102 Clearance | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2018 | Q3 2022 | $89.99 | 0.0% | — |
| 2014 | Q3 2018 | $69.99 | 0.0% | — |
Model hgbq-20260928-160312: Gradient-boosted price-change classifier + conformal quantile range (global, direct multi-horizon).