Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rozes Infanta Isabel Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Rozes Porto Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Rozes Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Rozes Vintage Porto 2017 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $43.79 $72.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sandeman Porto Founders Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Sandeman Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | ▲ 9.1% | ▲ 41.2% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Savory and James Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Savory and James Deluxe Amontillado Medium Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Sawmill Creek Vidal Blanc Ice Wine Canada 2018 dessert · 375 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Cream Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Dry Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Port First Estate dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 41% below | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Porto Late Bottled Vintage dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.49 | ▲ 15.7% | ▲ 20.5% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Port 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $148 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Port 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $69.93 $245 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 113% premium | <1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $36.99 | ▲ 5.7% | ▲ 23.3% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 50 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $300 | 0.0% | — | 226% premium | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 375 ml | $59.99 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Golden Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Taylor Marsala dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | 42% below | 14% typically +14% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | 34% below | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Taylor Port Black dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +6% if it rises |
| Taylor Port Black dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Taylor Port Variety Pack 2x750 mL dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.03 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Taylor Sherry Cream dessert · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Sherry Dry dessert · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | 44% below | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Tio Pepe Fino Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Wagner Vineyards Riesling Ice Wine Finger Lakes 2020 dessert · Finger Lakes · 375 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Heritage Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Warre's Kings Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Warre's Late Bottled Vintage Porto 2010 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $21.59 $35.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Otima 92 Colheita Tawny Porto 1992 dessert · Douro · 500 ml | $40.19 $66.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 101% premium | <1% |
| Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $52.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 3.6% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Warre's Quinta da Cavadinha Vintage Porto 2005 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $32.99 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vinhas Velhas Vintage Porto 350th Anniversay Edition 2020 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $56.93 $190 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 361% premium | <1% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2007 dessert · Douro · 1500 ml | $47.93 $160 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2003 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $38.93 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2017 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $74.99 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Warrior Reserve Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Warre's Warrior Reserve Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Warres Vintage Port 2016 dessert · Douro · 375 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warres Vintage Port 2016 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $65.99 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Amontillado 15 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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