Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Vintage-dated premium and luxury wines, ranked by the model's chance of a list-price rise within a year. These are retail shelf prices at a state retailer, not auction or secondary-market prices, so treat them as a signal of retail pricing momentum rather than investment returns.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Frog's Leap Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford 2023 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $79.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Orin Swift Mercury Head Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2023 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $180 | — | — | 100% premium | 2% |
| Chateau Doisy Daene Barsac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $33.99 $39.99 Sale | ▲ 14.3% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau du Grand Soussans Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $31.99 $34.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Fonplegade Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $65.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Gloria Saint Julien 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $67.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Haut Bages Liberal Pauillac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Pedesclaux Pauillac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Echo de Lynch Bages Pauillac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Ogier La Serine Cote Rotie 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Rombauer Vineyards Pinot Noir Santa Lucia Highlands 2022 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $59.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Ducru Beaucaillou Saint Julien 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $408 | ▲ 7.4% | — | 433% premium | 2% |
| Chateau Poujeaux Moulis en Medoc 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $41.99 $44.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Durfort Vivens Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $110 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Talbot Saint Julien 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $106 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Domaine de Cristia Cuvee Renaissance Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | 81% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Coutet Barsac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Lilian Ladouys Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $32.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% below | 1% |
| Chateau Paveil de Luze Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $32.99 | 0.0% | — | 67% below | 1% |
| Le Haut Medoc de Giscours Haut Medoc 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $31.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Brane Cantenac Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $125 | 0.0% | — | 88% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Olivier Pessac Leognan Rouge 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $47.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Ormes de Pez Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $45.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine du Pegau Chateauneuf du Pape Cuvee Reservee Rouge 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $82.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau La Vieille Cure Fronsac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau d'Aiguilhe Castillon Cotes de Bordeaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | 52% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Carbonnieux Pessac Leognan Rouge 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Laroque Saint Emilion 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Latour Martillac Pessac Leognan Rouge 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Les Carmes Haut Brion Pessac Leognan 2022 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $450 | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $350 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $350 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Siran Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.99 | 0.0% | — | 50% below | 1% |
| Chateau Tour Saint Christophe Saint Emilion 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Poesia Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.99 | 0.0% | — | 48% below | 1% |
| Chateau Fourcas Dupre Listrac Medoc 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $26.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Giscours Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $110 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Meyney Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Siaurac Lalande de Pomerol 2022 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau d'Issan Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $113 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Cantemerle Haut Medoc 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $43.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $84.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| R Lopez de Heredia Vina Tondonia Reserva Tinto Rioja 2012 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $64.99 | ▲ 18.2% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Chofflet Heritage Givry 2023 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $32.99 $34.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 36% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Ferriere Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $72.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $99.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Clos du Clocher Pomerol 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $99.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Jean Louis Chave Hermitage Rouge 2017 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $350 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 179% premium | 1% |
| Frog's Leap Merlot Rutherford 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $49.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Leoville du Marquis Las Cases Saint Julien 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $350 | ▲ 34.6% | — | 391% premium | 1% |
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