Orin Swift Mercury Head Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2023
red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · 2023 vintage · tracked since Q4 2025
Shelf price, Q3 2026
$180
4 quarters on record · 0 list-price changes · on sale in 0
List-price change, past year
—
Past 5 years: —
Outlook for the next 12 months
2% chance of a rise
typically +36% · <1% chance of a cut (typically -29%)
List priceForecast (median)80% forecast range
Show prices and forecast as a table
| Quarter | List | Sale | Forecast (80% range) | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2027 | $180 ($180–$180) | 2% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $180 ($180–$180) | 2% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $180 ($180–$180) | 2% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $180 ($180–$180) | 1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $180 | |||
| Q2 2026 | $180 | |||
| Q1 2026 | $180 | |||
| Q4 2025 | $180 |
Chance the list price will differ from today's $180
By
Higher
Lower
Q4 2026
1%
<1%
Q1 2027
2%
<1%
Q2 2027
2%
<1%
Q3 2027
2%
<1%
Fair price
$89.81
Comparable wines cost $61.44–$149 (80% range). At $180 it carries a 100% premium: often reputation or scarcity the model can't see.
Typical drinking window
2029–2043
Opens in 3 year(s) · rule of thumb, typical for luxury red wine from Napa Valley
Next vintage (2024) vs this one
4% chance priced higher
Typical change +0.9% (80% range -3.6% to 11.7%) · 5% chance priced lower
Why this outlook?
Get a plain-English explanation of this wine's forecast, fair price and vintage outlook, written by Amazon Nova on Amazon Bedrock using only the numbers on this page.
What if?
Change today's price or promotion and the model re-scores this wine live.
Promotion
Other vintages
Each vintage is tracked as its own wine.
| Vintage | Last listed | Shelf price | 1yr History | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023 (this page) | Listed now | $180 | — | 2% |
| 2021 | Listed now | $105 $175 Clearance | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2018 | Listed now | $130 | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2017 | Q2 2022 | $130 | 0.0% | — |
| 2016 | Q2 2022 | $130 | 0.0% | — |
| 2015 | Q3 2021 | $130 | 0.0% | — |
Model hgbq-20260928-160312: Gradient-boosted price-change classifier + conformal quantile range (global, direct multi-horizon).