Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20261008-061600
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Asili 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | 65% premium | 1% |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $108 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| St Francis Zinfandel Dry Creek Valley Reserve 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cuvaison Estate Pinot Noir Los Carneros 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $11.93 $41.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 66% premium | <1% |
| St Urbans Hof Cuvee Clara Sekt NV sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.33 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 66% premium | 1% |
| Solena Estate Hyland Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2020 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $41.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 66% premium | <1% |
| Syncline Winery Subduction Red Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $17.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 66% premium | <1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Chablis Grand Cru Bougros Cote Bouguerots 2022 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $142 $236 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 66% premium | <1% |
| Shafer One point Five Cabernet Sauvignon 2021 red · 750 ml | $74.99 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Calon Segur Saint Estephe 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $90.03 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau d'Issan Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $113 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jarvis Chardonnay Napa Valley 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $52.53 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 66% premium | <1% |
| Risata Moscato d'Asti sparkling · Piedmont · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.49 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | 66% premium | 1% |
| Planeta Santa Cecilia Nero d'Avola Noto 2020 red · 750 ml | $27.59 $45.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 67% premium | <1% |
| Turk Eiswein vom Gruner Veltliner Niederosterreich 2018 white · 375 ml | $11.73 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wente Vineyards Pinot Noir Riva Ranch Monterey County red · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 $26.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | 67% premium | 5% |
| Wine Chat Nothing Says Christmas White white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.33 $13.99 Clearance | ▲ 7.7% | — | 67% premium | 1% |
| Kimsey Grenache Ballard Canyon 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $69.99 $74.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 67% premium | 1% |
| Nik Weis St Urbans Hof Riesling Bockstein Spatlese Mosel 2021 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $14.33 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 67% premium | <1% |
| Dow's Late Bottled Vintage Ruby Port 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $27.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Yellow Tail Pinot Grigio Reserve white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.99 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 67% premium | 1% |
| Weinrieder Ried Kugler Riesling Niederosterreich 2020 white · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 67% premium | <1% |
| La Perriere Sancerre white · Loire · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $34.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 6.1% | 67% premium | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Warre's Vintage Porto 2017 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $74.99 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ghost Block Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.93 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 67% premium | <1% |
| Fidelitas Winery Red Mountain Cabernet Sauvignon 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Catena Alta Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $36.03 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 68% premium | <1% |
| Susana Balbo Wines Signature Barrel Fermented Torrontes Mendoza 2023 white · Mendoza · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | 68% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Canon Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $49.93 $190 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Open Claim Vineyards Estate Chardonnay Willamette Valley 2019 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $20.93 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 68% premium | <1% |
| Dei Vino Nobile di Montepulciano 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $35.99 | — | — | 68% premium | 1% |
| Malvira Vigne Nuove Roero Nebbiolo 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $7.93 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 68% premium | <1% |
| Bar Dog Cabernet Sauvignon and Chardonnay 2 x 750mL Bottles white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $25.99 | 0.0% | — | 68% premium | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Bedrock Evangelho Vineyard Heritage Red Contra Costa County 2022 red · 750 ml | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sunwine Black Cliffs Saperavi Georgia Red Wine 2020 red · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 68% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2017 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $28.73 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pasaeli K2 Blend AegeanTurkey Red 2022 red · 750 ml | $23.99 | — | — | 68% premium | <1% |
| Wente Vineyards Charles Wetmore Cabernet Sauvignon Livermore Valley Estate Grown red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 $26.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | 68% premium | 5% |
| Borne of Fire Cabernet Sauvignon The Burn red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 $24.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 68% premium | 4% |
| Domaine Amiot Guy Chassagne Montrachet Les Caillerets 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $89.99 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 68% premium | <1% |
| Patz and Hall Bootlegger's Hill Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Herdade dos Grous Reserva Red 2021 red · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 69% premium | <1% |
| Sulavi Alazani Valley Semi Sweet Red Kakheti Ceramic red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 69% premium | 1% |
| Descendients de Jose Palacios Petalos Del Bierzo Mencia Bierzo 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 69% premium | <1% |
| Argiano Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $59.99 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Rois Mages Les Cailloux Rully Blanc 2021 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $14.03 $46.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 69% premium | <1% |
| Concha Y Toro Don Melchor Cabernet Sauvignon Puente Alto 2019 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $34.93 $140 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 69% premium | <1% |
| Testarossa Pinot Noir Doctor's Vineyard Santa Lucia Highlands 2021 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 70% premium | <1% |
| Mercouri Estate Kallisto Peloponnese Greece White 2024 white · 750 ml | $29.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tres Ojos Old Vines Garnacha Calatayud 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 70% premium | <1% |
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