Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau Montelena Chardonnay Napa Valley 2022 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $47.99 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 34% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Smith Haut Lafitte Pessac Leognan Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $76.53 $151 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Billecart Salmon Champagne Brut Rose sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $74.99 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 47.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine des Heritiers Corton Pougets Grand Cru Rouge 2021 red · 750 ml | $48.93 $161 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Beau Sejour Becot Saint Emilion 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Tenuta Silvio Nardi Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $50.99 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Puligny Montrachet La Garenne 1er Cru Blanc 2020 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $119 | 0.0% | — | 35% premium | <1% |
| A Margaine Special Club Blanc de Blancs 1er Cru Brut Champagne 2016 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 35% premium | <1% |
| St Supery Elu Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Canon Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $156 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Le Clos Beaune Greves 1er Cru Blanc 2021 white · 750 ml | $59.99 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hess Collection Cabernet Sauvignon Mount Veeder Estate 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $50.99 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Opus One Red Blend Rutherford Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $258 $430 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Merryvale Profile Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $68.93 $225 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Clos du Marquis Saint Julien 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $130 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Keenan Capstone Spring Mountain District Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $25.43 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Gruaud Larose Saint Julien 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $127 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dr Loosen Wehlener Sonnenuhr Riesling GG Reserve Im Laychen 2017 white · 750 ml | $103 $105 Sale | 0.0% | — | 36% premium | 1% |
| Inglenook Rubicon Rutherford 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $100 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Canon la Gaffeliere Saint Emilion 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jarvis Cabernet Franc Napa Valley 2016 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $49.93 $170 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| William Fevre Fourchaume Chablis 1er Cru 2021 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $56.33 $93.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ciacci Piccolomini d'Aragona Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Vintage Porto 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Beau Sejour Becot Saint Emilion 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.23 $86.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Palmer Alter Ego Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $150 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $99.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine du Duc de Magenta Clos de La Chapelle Monopole Chassagne Montrachet Morgeot1er Cru Blanc 2019 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $105 | 0.0% | — | 37% premium | <1% |
| Donum Pinot Noir Carneros Sonoma County 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $52.53 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $250 $450 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Calon Segur Saint Estephe 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $150 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $144 $231 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Rio Sordo 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $82.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vineyard 29 Ceanda Cabernet Sauvignon St Helena 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $89.99 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Clerc Milon Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $115 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenute Silvio Nardi Brunello di Montalcino 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penfolds Bin 389 Cabernet Shiraz South Australia 2022 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% premium | 1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Cabernet Sauvignon Vaca Vista Oak Knoll Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 $130 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Les Preuses Chablis Grand Cru 2021 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $120 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 41% premium | <1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Les Clos Chablis Grand Cru 2020 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $59.73 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 41% premium | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Cabernet Sauvignon CC Ranch Rutheford Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 $130 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Gruaud Larose Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $38.93 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Canon la Gaffeliere Saint Emilion 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Les Preuses Chablis Grand Cru 2022 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $215 | 0.0% | — | 42% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Durfort Vivens Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $59.93 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Berliquet Saint Emilion 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Merlot Three Palms Vineyard Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $34.93 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Winery The Estates Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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