Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Maynard's Late Bottle Vintage Porto 2017 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 68% below | <1% |
| Royal Oporto Late Bottle Vintage Porto 2016 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 62% below | <1% |
| Opici Vineyards Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 58% below | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Chateau Suduiraut Lions de Suduiraut Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | 53% below | 1% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Lions de Suduiraut Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 49% below | <1% |
| G and D Marsala Private Stock dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.23 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 18.6% | 47% below | 2% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Lions de Suduiraut Sauternes 2017 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 46% below | 1% |
| Chateau Guiraud Petit Guiraud Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $5.33 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 45% below | <1% |
| Taylor Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | 44% below | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Jorge Ordonez Botani Moscatel Old Vines Sierras de Malaga 2019 dessert · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 44% below | 1% |
| Paul Masson Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.23 $7.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.3% | 43% below | 2% |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | 42% below | 14% typically +14% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Port First Estate dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 41% below | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Rozes Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Dios Baco Ria Pita Manzanilla Sherry dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.03 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 35% below | 1% |
| Penfolds Club Tawny Port Australia dessert · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 34% below | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | 34% below | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Fonseca Bin 27 Reserve Port dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | — | — | 29% below | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Opici Vineyards Marsala dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 27% below | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Chateau Doisy Daene Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $17.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 26% below | <1% |
| Warre's Quinta da Cavadinha Vintage Porto 2005 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $32.99 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $38.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2021 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $276 $280 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $168 $280 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2014 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $186 $300 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Disznoko Tokaji Late Harvest 2020 dessert · 500 ml | $14.39 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $36.99 | ▲ 5.7% | ▲ 23.3% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Chateau d'Yquem Sauternes 2019 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $300 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Disznoko Tokaji 1413 2021 dessert · 500 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Royal Oporto Late Bottled Vintage Porto 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $13.79 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $38.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 21.9% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Quinta Do Vallado LBV Porto 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $9.53 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 20 Year Old Gift Set dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.59 $65.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Taylor Dry Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Cockburn's Port Special Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.79 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.2% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +9% if it rises |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $66.99 $70.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Warre's Warrior Reserve Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Feuerheerd's Douro Red Reserva Anchor Wine Port Barrel Aged 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $7.53 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Port Variety Pack 2x750 mL dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.03 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Bastor Lamontagne Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Carmes de Rieussec Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bodegas Xalo Bahia de Denia Moscatel Alicante 2023 dessert · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Carmes de Rieussec Sauternes 2019 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castello di Meleto Vin Santo del Chianti Classico 2010 dessert · Tuscany · 375 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Golden Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Harvey's Bristol Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $19.99 Sale | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 17.7% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Castello di Meleto Vin Santo del Chianti Classico 2011 dessert · Tuscany · 375 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bostavan Pastoral Etulia Red Dessert Moldova dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Warres Vintage Port 2016 dessert · Douro · 375 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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