Sea Smoke Chardonnay Santa Rita Hills 2022
white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · 2022 vintage · tracked since Q4 2024
Shelf price, Q3 2026
$63.03 $105 Clearance
8 quarters on record · 0 list-price changes · on sale in 0
List-price change, past year
0.0%
Past 5 years: —
Outlook for the next 12 months
<1% chance of a rise
typically +6% · <1% chance of a cut (typically -24%)
List priceSale / clearance priceForecast (median)80% forecast range
Show prices and forecast as a table
| Quarter | List | Sale | Forecast (80% range) | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2027 | $105 ($105–$105) | <1% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $105 ($105–$105) | <1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $105 ($105–$105) | <1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $105 ($105–$105) | <1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $105 | $63.03 | ||
| Q2 2026 | $105 | $63.03 | ||
| Q1 2026 | $105 | $79.93 | ||
| Q4 2025 | $105 | |||
| Q3 2025 | $105 | |||
| Q2 2025 | $105 | |||
| Q1 2025 | $105 | |||
| Q4 2024 | $105 |
Chance the list price will differ from today's $105
By
Higher
Lower
Q4 2026
<1%
<1%
Q1 2027
<1%
<1%
Q2 2027
<1%
<1%
Q3 2027
<1%
<1%
Fair price
$89.06
Comparable wines cost $51.98–$90.58 (80% range). At $105 it carries a 18% premium: often reputation or scarcity the model can't see.
Typical drinking window
2023–2028
In its window now · rule of thumb, typical for luxury white wine from Santa Barbara
Next vintage (2023) vs this one
13% chance priced higher
Typical change 0% (80% range -3% to 5.9%) · 33% chance priced lower
Why this outlook?
Get a plain-English explanation of this wine's forecast, fair price and vintage outlook, written by Amazon Nova on Amazon Bedrock using only the numbers on this page.
What if?
Change today's price or promotion and the model re-scores this wine live. It is currently on clearance.
Promotion
Other vintages
Each vintage is tracked as its own wine.
| Vintage | Last listed | Shelf price | 1yr History | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (this page) | Listed now | $63.03 $105 Clearance | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2021 | Listed now | $76.43 $102 Clearance | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2018 | Q3 2022 | $89.99 | 0.0% | — |
| 2014 | Q3 2018 | $69.99 | 0.0% | — |
Model hgbq-20260928-160312: Gradient-boosted price-change classifier + conformal quantile range (global, direct multi-horizon).