Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Lustau East India Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 $27.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 43% premium | 14% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | 42% below | 14% typically +14% if it rises |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $220 | 0.0% | — | 106% premium | 13% typically +10% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 13% typically +7% if it rises |
| Harvey's Bristol Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $19.99 Sale | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 17.7% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 10 Year Old Gift Set dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $36.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Sercial Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +10% if it rises |
| Christian Brothers Ruby Port California dessert · California Central Valley · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 4.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +7% if it rises |
| Cockburn's Porto Branco Fine White Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 $15.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +6% if it rises |
| Lustau Papirusa Manzanilla Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +6% if it rises |
| Lustau Los Arcos Amontillado Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +6% if it rises |
| Bostavan Pastoral Etulia Red Dessert Moldova dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Sandeman Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | ▲ 9.1% | ▲ 41.2% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Feuerheerd's Twenty Year Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +10% if it rises |
| Florio Vecchioflorio Marsala Superiore Dry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 7.1% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +3% if it rises |
| Florio Vecchioflorio Marsala Superiore Sweet dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 7.1% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +3% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Port First Estate dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 41% below | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Porto Late Bottled Vintage dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.49 | ▲ 15.7% | ▲ 20.5% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Fonseca Bin 27 Reserve Port dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | — | — | 29% below | 9% typically +8% if it rises |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $150 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| Penfolds Club Tawny Port Australia dessert · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 34% below | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Taylor Cream Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Marsala dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 36.4% | 44% below | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Opici Vineyards Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 58% below | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Opici Vineyards Marsala dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 27% below | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Warre's Warrior Reserve Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $66.99 $70.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Blandy's Sercial Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Emilio Lustau Capataz Crema Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $18.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +6% if it rises |
| Lustau San Emilio PX Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Port Black dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +6% if it rises |
| Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Emilio Lustau Fino Jarana Solera Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $70.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Fonseca Bin 27 Reserve Port Gift Tin dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $20.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Savory and James Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Taylor Dry Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | 34% below | 7% typically +8% if it rises |
| Cockburn's Port Special Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.79 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.2% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +9% if it rises |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $210 $240 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | 116% premium | 7% typically +11% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 50 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $300 | 0.0% | — | 226% premium | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Warre's Heritage Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Warre's Kings Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Cockburn's Special Reserve Ruby Port with 2 Glasses Gift Set dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Cockburn's Fine Ruby Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.6% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Sandeman Porto Founders Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $36.99 | ▲ 5.7% | ▲ 23.3% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Rozes Tawny Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% below | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
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