Graham's Tawny Porto 40 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed · tracked since Q4 2016
Shelf price, Q3 2026
$210 $240 Sale
40 quarters on record · 4 list-price changes · on sale in 1
List-price change, past year
0.0%
Past 5 years: ▲ 20.0%
Outlook for the next 12 months
7% chance of a rise
typically +11% · 6% chance of a cut (typically -10%)
List priceSale / clearance priceForecast (median)80% forecast range
Show prices and forecast as a table
| Quarter | List | Sale | Forecast (80% range) | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2027 | $240 ($240–$246) | 7% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $240 ($240–$243) | 7% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $240 ($240–$240) | 7% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $240 ($240–$240) | 6% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $240 | $210 | ||
| Q2 2026 | $240 | |||
| Q1 2026 | $240 | |||
| Q4 2025 | $240 | |||
| Q3 2025 | $240 | |||
| Q2 2025 | $240 | |||
| Q1 2025 | $240 | |||
| Q4 2024 | $240 | |||
| Q3 2024 | $240 | |||
| Q2 2024 | $240 | |||
| Q1 2024 | $240 | |||
| Q4 2023 | $240 | |||
| Q3 2023 | $240 | |||
| Q2 2023 | $240 | |||
| Q1 2023 | $240 | |||
| Q4 2022 | $220 | |||
| Q3 2022 | $220 | |||
| Q2 2022 | $220 | |||
| Q1 2022 | $220 | |||
| Q4 2021 | $220 | |||
| Q3 2021 | $200 | |||
| Q2 2021 | $200 | |||
| Q1 2021 | $200 | |||
| Q4 2020 | $200 | |||
| Q3 2020 | $200 | |||
| Q2 2020 | $200 | |||
| Q1 2020 | $200 | |||
| Q4 2019 | $200 | |||
| Q3 2019 | $200 | |||
| Q2 2019 | $200 | |||
| Q1 2019 | $200 | |||
| Q4 2018 | $200 | |||
| Q3 2018 | $200 | |||
| Q2 2018 | $175 | |||
| Q1 2018 | $175 | |||
| Q4 2017 | $175 | |||
| Q3 2017 | $159 | |||
| Q2 2017 | $159 | |||
| Q1 2017 | $159 | |||
| Q4 2016 | $159 |
Chance the list price will differ from today's $240
By
Higher
Lower
Q4 2026
6%
2%
Q1 2027
7%
5%
Q2 2027
7%
5%
Q3 2027
7%
6%
Fair price
$111
Comparable wines cost $55.18–$213 (80% range). At $240 it carries a 116% premium: often reputation or scarcity the model can't see.
Why this outlook?
Get a plain-English explanation of this wine's forecast, fair price and vintage outlook, written by Amazon Nova on Amazon Bedrock using only the numbers on this page.
What if?
Change today's price or promotion and the model re-scores this wine live. It is currently on sale.
Promotion
Model hgbq-20260928-160312: Gradient-boosted price-change classifier + conformal quantile range (global, direct multi-horizon).