Cellar Index
Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today

Wine prices, tracked and forecast

Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.

How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Popular winesMost likely to riseCollector watchBest valuesAll wines

Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.

WineShelf price1yr History5yr Historyvs fair priceChance of a rise within a year
Chateau Doisy Daene Sauternes 2020
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$17.93 $29.99 Clearance 0.0%—26% below<1%
Warre's Quinta da Cavadinha Vintage Porto 2005
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$32.99 $54.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Graham's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$38.99 0.0%▲ 18.2%Fairly priced3%
Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 10 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$36.99▲ 5.7%▲ 23.3%Fairly priced7%
typically +5% if it rises
Disznoko Tokaji 1413 2021
dessert · 500 ml
$16.79 $27.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 10 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$29.99 0.0%—Fairly priced3%
Dow's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$38.99 0.0%▲ 21.9%Fairly priced6%
typically +10% if it rises
Quinta Do Vallado LBV Porto 2018
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$9.53 $31.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 20 Year Old Gift Set
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$39.59 $65.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Graham's Tawny Porto 20 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$66.99 $70.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced8%
typically +10% if it rises
Warres Vintage Port 2016
dessert · Douro · 375 ml
$54.99 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Blandy's Sercial Madeira 5 Year Old
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$26.99 $29.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced8%
typically +7% if it rises
Rozes Vintage Porto 2017
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$43.79 $72.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Sandeman Porto Founders Reserve
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$29.99▲ 11.1%▲ 36.4%Fairly priced7%
typically +7% if it rises
Dow's Tawny Porto 20 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$70.99 0.0%—Fairly priced7%
typically +10% if it rises
Puklus Pinceszet Tokaji 5 Puttonyos 2017
dessert · 500 ml
$29.99 $49.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 5 Year Old
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$29.99 0.0%—Fairly priced13%
typically +7% if it rises
Blandy's Bual Madeira 5 Year Old
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$29.99 0.0%—Fairly priced6%
typically +7% if it rises
Maynard's Tawny Port 20 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$20.99 $34.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Chateau la Tour Blanche Sauternes 2018
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$29.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Clos Haut Peyraguey Sauternes 2018
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$29.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Maynard's Colheita Port 2012
dessert · Douro · 500 ml
$9.93 $34.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Chateau Doisy Vedrines Sauternes 2020
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$28.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 5 Year Old
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$26.99 $29.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced3%
Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 20 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$52.99 0.0%▼ 3.6%Fairly priced2%
Puklus Pinceszet Aszu Tokaji 6 Puttonyos 2013
dessert · 500 ml
$59.99 0.0% 0.0%Fairly priced<1%
Warre's Late Bottled Vintage Porto 2010
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$21.59 $35.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Taylor Fladgate Porto Late Bottled Vintage
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$26.49▲ 15.7%▲ 20.5%Fairly priced9%
typically +6% if it rises
Disznoko Tokaji 5 Puttonyos 2013
dessert · 500 ml
$32.39 $53.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Graham's Six Grapes Porto Reserve
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$26.99 0.0%▲ 3.8%Fairly priced6%
typically +9% if it rises
Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 10 Year Old Gift Set
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$33.99 $36.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced11%
typically +7% if it rises
Quinta da Pacheca Late Bottled Port 2018
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$25.99 $27.99 Sale——Fairly priced1%
Disznoko Tokaji 5 Puttonyos 2012
dessert · 500 ml
$59.99 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Rozes Infanta Isabel Tawny Porto 10 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$20.93 $34.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 10 Year Old
dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$33.99 $37.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced7%
typically +7% if it rises
Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2019
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$22.49 $37.49 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Puklus Pinceszet Tokaji 6 Puttonyos 2017
dessert · 500 ml
$35.99 $59.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2020
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$23.99 $39.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Blandy's Sercial Madeira 10 Year Old
dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$33.99 $37.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced11%
typically +10% if it rises
Chateau Bastor Lamontagne Sauternes 2018
dessert · Bordeaux · 750 ml
$36.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Oloroso 15 Year Sherry
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$7.93 $28.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Delaforce His Eminence's Choice Tawny Porto 10 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$17.99 $29.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Delaforce Curious and Ancient Tawny Porto 20 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$29.99 $49.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Blandy's Bual Madeira 10 Year Old
dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$10.93 $37.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Presidential Tawny Port 20 Year Old Ships Decanter
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$35.03 $69.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Pedro Ximenez 15 Year Sherry
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$7.93 $28.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 10 Year Old
dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$37.99 0.0%—Fairly priced6%
typically +7% if it rises
Fonseca Tawny Port 20 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$60.99 0.0%—Fairly priced5%
typically +7% if it rises
Chateau Sigalas Rabaud Sauternes 2018
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$29.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Royal Oporto Tawny Port 20 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$43.19 $71.99 Clearance 0.0%▲ 20.0%Fairly priced1%
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