Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casa Santos Lima Red Blend Lisboa Box 2019 red · 3000 ml | $25.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castle Rock Merlot Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau La Freynelle Bordeaux Blanc 2022 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Drappier Champagne Brut Nature sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.03 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Gelida Cava Brut Gran Reserva 2018 sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Bete Noire Cahors 2022 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Croix Ducru Beaucaillou Saint Julien 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $64.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lisini Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Massimo Rivetti Froi Barbera d'Alba 2022 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $15.99 $16.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mionetto Prosecco Rose sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pasaeli Calkarasi Aegean Turkey Rose 2024 rosé · 750 ml | $13.99 $16.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Patz and Hall Chardonnay Sonoma Coast white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $34.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 12% typically +6% if it rises |
| Poggio Anima Asmodeus Nero d'Avola Sicilia red · Sicily · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +23% if it rises |
| Presto Prosecco Brut sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.71 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Santa Julia Flores Negras Cabernet Franc Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sea Smoke Southing Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2022 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $69.03 $111 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Seaglass Pinot Grigio Santa Barbara County white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Sycamore Lane Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.48 $10.96 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| 14 Hands Merlot Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 13% typically +5% if it rises |
| Adaptation Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Ego Infinito Monastrell Jumilla 2018 red · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Brotte Baies Dorees Viognier Pays d'Oc 2020 white · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $6.53 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ceibo Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Chateau La Louviere Pessac Leognan Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.43 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Lyonnat Lussac Saint Emilion 2015 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Olivier Pessac Leognan Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $33.73 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Di Giovanna Camurria Orange Sicilia 2023 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de Vauroux Chablis 2023 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $25.99 $29.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| E Guigal Hermitage Rouge 2017 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $26.73 $86.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mad Fish Shiraz Western Australia 2019 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Idiart Pinot Noir Loire Valley 2023 red · Loire · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mastroberardino Lacryma Christi Rosso 2022 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Natura Organic Carmenere red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 3.5% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Neleman Organic Vineyards Bobal Oolong 2022 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Norton 101 Bubbles Sparkling Mendoza Brut sparkling · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.73 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sea Smoke Southing Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $112 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Single Post Riesling Mosel 2020 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wellsley Farms Gran Seleccion Malbec red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.39 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Wines of Illyria Vranac Herzegovina 2019 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 2 Canos Cheerful Frizzante Red Blackberry and Mint La Mache red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Angels and Cowboys Proprietary Red Sonoma County 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barefoot Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Boroli Barolo Classico 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $47.99 $52.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Buck Shack Cabernet Sauvignon Aged in Bourbon Barrels Lake County 2019 red · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Canyon Road Pinot Grigio white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.44 $10.89 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dark Horse Buttery Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 29% typically +4% if it rises |
| Domaine Sainte Anne Cotes du Rhone Blanc 2020 white · Rhone · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine des Trois Noyers Sancerre Blanc 2023 white · Loire · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fullerton Five FACES Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2017 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $10.93 $35.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Groth Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $47.99 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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