Sea Smoke Southing Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2021
red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · 2021 vintage · tracked since Q1 2024
Shelf price, Q3 2026
$112
11 quarters on record · 0 list-price changes · on sale in 0
List-price change, past year
0.0%
Past 5 years: —
Outlook for the next 12 months
<1% chance of a rise
typically +10% · <1% chance of a cut (typically -32%)
List priceForecast (median)80% forecast range
Show prices and forecast as a table
| Quarter | List | Sale | Forecast (80% range) | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2027 | $112 ($112–$112) | <1% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $112 ($112–$112) | <1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $112 ($112–$112) | <1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $112 ($112–$112) | <1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $112 | |||
| Q2 2026 | $112 | |||
| Q1 2026 | $112 | |||
| Q4 2025 | $112 | |||
| Q3 2025 | $112 | |||
| Q2 2025 | $112 | |||
| Q1 2025 | $112 | |||
| Q4 2024 | $112 | |||
| Q3 2024 | $112 | |||
| Q2 2024 | $112 | |||
| Q1 2024 | $112 |
Chance the list price will differ from today's $112
By
Higher
Lower
Q4 2026
<1%
<1%
Q1 2027
<1%
<1%
Q2 2027
<1%
<1%
Q3 2027
<1%
<1%
Fair price
$115
Comparable wines cost $75.87–$129 (80% range). At $112 it is fairly priced for what it is.
Typical drinking window
2026–2036
In its window now · rule of thumb, typical for luxury red wine from Santa Barbara
Why this outlook?
Get a plain-English explanation of this wine's forecast, fair price and vintage outlook, written by Amazon Nova on Amazon Bedrock using only the numbers on this page.
What if?
Change today's price or promotion and the model re-scores this wine live.
Promotion
Other vintages
Each vintage is tracked as its own wine.
| Vintage | Last listed | Shelf price | 1yr History | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 | Listed now | $69.03 $111 Clearance | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2021 (this page) | Listed now | $112 | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2018 | Q4 2022 | $89.99 | 0.0% | — |
| 2015 | Q1 2019 | $69.99 | 0.0% | — |
| 2014 | Q2 2019 | $69.99 | 0.0% | — |
Model hgbq-20260928-160312: Gradient-boosted price-change classifier + conformal quantile range (global, direct multi-horizon).