Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domaine Prieur Brunet Santenay Maladiere 1er Cru Rouge 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine de la Charbonnierre Tradition Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frog's Leap Merlot Rutherford 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $49.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| GD Vajra Luigi Baudana Barolo Cerreta 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Honig Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jean Paul Brun Terres Dorees Morgon 2018 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $26.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Line 39 Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $11.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Addendum Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2016 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $84.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cloudy Bay Pinot Noir Marlborough 2021 red · Marlborough · 750 ml | $25.79 $42.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Paul Pernot Puligny Montrachet 2024 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $89.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Freemark Abbey Merlot Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.93 $46.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Menage a Trois Luscious Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Quail Oak Merlot California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.22 | 0.0% | ▲ 30.5% | Fairly priced | 17% typically +11% if it rises |
| The Arsonist Red Blend California 2018 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Undurraga Carmenere Reserva Colchagua Valley red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 12% typically +7% if it rises |
| Venge Vineyards Scout's Honor Proprietary Red Wine California 2021 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Whitehall Lane Merlot Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 11.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Yori Wine Cellars St Croix Semi Dry Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Black Stallion Estate Winery Limited Release Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $44.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carol Shelton Wild Thing Old Vine Zinfandel Mendocino County 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Dauzac Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $81.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Kirwan Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Darioush Caravan Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $37.13 $61.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Di Giovanna V21 Ventuno Grillo Sicilia 2023 red · Sicily · 3000 ml | $31.99 | ▲ 6.7% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Lafage Bastide Miraflors Cotes du Roussillon Rouge 2019 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Michel Goubard et Fils Mont Avril Pinot Noir Bourgogne Cote Chalonnaise 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Noir Wines New Noir Orange Wine Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Montes Limited Carmenere Colchagua Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $10.13 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| OZV Old Vine Zinfandel Estate Grown Lodi 2020 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $4.43 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pierrick Harang Le Petit Balthazar Vin Rouge Languedoc red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Sea Smoke Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills Ten 2022 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $83.43 $111 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The Crusher Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 14.3% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barefoot Pinot Noir 2x1.5 L Multipack red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +4% if it rises |
| Col d'Orcia Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Decoy Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $25.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Domaine Paul Autard Ronde Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $47.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| MAN Family Wines Ou Kalant Cabernet Sauvignon Coastal Region 2020 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Marques de Caceres Reserva Rioja 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Pora 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $82.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Six Hats Cabernet Sauvignon 2023 red · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Airfield Merlot Yakima Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bibbiano Chianti Classico Bibbiano 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Deep and Dark Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | 6% premium | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bodega Colome Malbec Calchaqui Valley Salta Estate 2020 red · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de Fondreche Ventoux Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $5.33 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mark West Pinot Noir 2x750 mL Multipack red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Mitravelas Red on Black Peloponnese 2023 red · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pendulum Red Blend Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sindicat La Figuera Grenache 2022 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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