Sea Smoke Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills Ten 2022
red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · 2022 vintage · tracked since Q4 2024
Shelf price, Q3 2026
$83.43 $111 Clearance
8 quarters on record · 0 list-price changes · on sale in 0
List-price change, past year
0.0%
Past 5 years: —
Outlook for the next 12 months
<1% chance of a rise
typically +11% · <1% chance of a cut (typically -28%)
List priceSale / clearance priceForecast (median)80% forecast range
Show prices and forecast as a table
| Quarter | List | Sale | Forecast (80% range) | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2027 | $111 ($111–$111) | <1% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $111 ($111–$111) | <1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $111 ($111–$111) | <1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $111 ($111–$111) | <1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $111 | $83.43 | ||
| Q2 2026 | $111 | $83.43 | ||
| Q1 2026 | $111 | $83.43 | ||
| Q4 2025 | $111 | |||
| Q3 2025 | $111 | |||
| Q2 2025 | $111 | |||
| Q1 2025 | $111 | |||
| Q4 2024 | $111 |
Chance the list price will differ from today's $111
By
Higher
Lower
Q4 2026
<1%
<1%
Q1 2027
<1%
<1%
Q2 2027
<1%
<1%
Q3 2027
<1%
<1%
Fair price
$105
Comparable wines cost $65.62–$118 (80% range). At $111 it is fairly priced for what it is.
Typical drinking window
2027–2037
Opens in 1 year(s) · rule of thumb, typical for luxury red wine from Santa Barbara
Next vintage (2023) vs this one
7% chance priced higher
Typical change 0% (80% range -3.2% to 5%) · 4% chance priced lower
Why this outlook?
Get a plain-English explanation of this wine's forecast, fair price and vintage outlook, written by Amazon Nova on Amazon Bedrock using only the numbers on this page.
What if?
Change today's price or promotion and the model re-scores this wine live. It is currently on clearance.
Promotion
Other vintages
Each vintage is tracked as its own wine.
| Vintage | Last listed | Shelf price | 1yr History | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022 (this page) | Listed now | $83.43 $111 Clearance | 0.0% | <1% |
| 2017 | Q4 2022 | $105 | 0.0% | — |
| 2016 | Q4 2019 | $99.99 | — | — |
Model hgbq-20260928-160312: Gradient-boosted price-change classifier + conformal quantile range (global, direct multi-horizon).