Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dios Baco Elite Amontillado Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.23 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | 1% |
| Schlumberger Brut Rose Burgenland 2021 sparkling · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | 1% |
| Willamette Valley Vineyards White Pinot Noir 2019 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kimsey Syrah Ballard Canyon 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $44.99 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | <1% |
| Lamblin et Fils Vaillon Chablis Premier Cru 2020 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $25.13 $41.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | <1% |
| Pulenta Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Mendoza Agrelo 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $15.03 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pierre Marie Chermette Fleurie Poncie 2022 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $19.93 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | <1% |
| Digby Fine English Brut English Sparkling Wine sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $51.99 $56.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 14% typically +6% if it rises |
| Irvine and Roberts Vineyards Pinot Noir Rogue Valley 2022 red · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lapostolle Cuvee Alexandre Cabernet Sauvignon Valle Central 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | <1% |
| Flycatcher by Frog's Leap Red 2023 red · 750 ml | $29.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Martini and Rossi Asti sparkling · Piedmont · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $28.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.0% | 44% premium | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Moutard Champagne Demi Sec sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $44.99 | ▲ 21.6% | ▲ 40.6% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Laroque Saint Emilion 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Decoy Limited Red Wine Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | 45% premium | 10% typically +5% if it rises |
| Domaine Paul Garaudet Cuvee Paul Monthelie Rouge 2017 red · 750 ml | $20.03 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Broken Earth Winery Cabernet Franc Paso Robles 2019 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Clos Floridene Graves Blanc 2021 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Luigi Bosca DOC Malbec De Sangre Lujan 2020 red · 750 ml | $26.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta di Burchino Il Burchino Toscana 2015 red · Tuscany · 3000 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Couly Dutheil Baronnie Madeleine Chinon Rouge 2018 red · Loire · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Greppicaia I Greppi Bolgheri Superiore 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $43.79 $72.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Arthur Barolet Chardonnay Bourgogne Blanc 2022 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $9.93 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fontanafredda Serralunga d'Alba Barolo red · Piedmont · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $31.79 $52.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 26.2% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Shafer Vineyards Red Shoulder Ranch Chardonnay Los Carneros 2022 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 46% premium | <1% |
| Tenuta di Burchino Il Burchino Toscana 2016 red · Tuscany · 3000 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mt Beautiful Pinot Noir North Canterbury 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 46% premium | <1% |
| Shafer Red Shoulder Ranch Chardonnay Carneros 2021 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $20.73 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Louis Jadot Santenay Clos de Malte Blanc 2021 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $37.73 $63.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 46% premium | <1% |
| La Spinetta Ca di Pian Barbera d'Asti 2023 sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml | $32.99 | — | — | 46% premium | 2% |
| Chateau de Fieuzal Pessac Leognan Blanc 2018 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $37.53 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 46% premium | <1% |
| Soter Vineyards Estates Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.93 $51.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| J Lohr Chardonnay Arroyo Vista white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.99 | ▲ 3.7% | — | Fairly priced | 14% typically +6% if it rises |
| Chateau Paloumey Organic Cru Bourgeois Haut Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Guarachi Family Wines Pinot Noir Sun Chase Vineyard Petaluma Gap Sonoma County 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $22.43 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 47% premium | <1% |
| Hanna Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 14.3% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Hamilton Russell Vineyards Chardonnay Hemel En Aarde Valley 2023 white · 750 ml | $49.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| TOP SOURCE Winery Red Syrah Walla Walla Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beringer Private Reserve Chardonnay Napa Valley 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.43 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Browne Family Vineyards Bitner Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Alicia Las Compuertas Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Aquilini Gia Bella Brut Rose Red Mountain 2020 sparkling · Washington · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Planeta Santa Cecilia Nero d'Avola Noto 2018 red · 750 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sanford Pinot Noir Sta Rita Hills red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 28.6% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Poujeaux Moulis en Medoc 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Paul Garaudet Cuvee Paul Monthelie Rouge 2018 red · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dr Thanisch Bernkasteler Graben Riesling GG QbA Mosel 2019 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $10.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rocky Pond Cabernet Sauvignon Rocky Reach 2021 red · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Scott Family Estate Pinot Noir Arroyo Seco 2018 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 48% premium | <1% |
| EIEIO & Company Cuvee E Pinot Noir 2017 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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