Cellar Index
Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today

Wine prices, tracked and forecast

Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.

How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Popular winesMost likely to riseCollector watchBest valuesAll wines

Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.

WineShelf price1yr History5yr Historyvs fair priceChance of a rise within a year
Chateau Lafaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2020
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$26.93 $44.99 Clearance 0.0%—114% premium<1%
Graham's Tawny Porto 40 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$210 $240 Sale 0.0%▲ 20.0%116% premium7%
typically +11% if it rises
Rozes 20 Years Old Port
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$59.99 0.0%—168% premium6%
typically +7% if it rises
Chateau Lafaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2022
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$62.99 0.0%—177% premium1%
Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 50 Year Old
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$300 0.0%—226% premium7%
typically +10% if it rises
Warre's Vinhas Velhas Vintage Porto 350th Anniversay Edition 2020
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$56.93 $190 Clearance 0.0%—361% premium<1%
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