Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau Lafaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $26.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 114% premium | <1% |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 40 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $210 $240 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | 116% premium | 7% typically +11% if it rises |
| Rozes 20 Years Old Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | 168% premium | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Chateau Lafaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $62.99 | 0.0% | — | 177% premium | 1% |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 50 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $300 | 0.0% | — | 226% premium | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Warre's Vinhas Velhas Vintage Porto 350th Anniversay Edition 2020 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $56.93 $190 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 361% premium | <1% |
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