Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matias Riccitelli The Apple Doesn't Fall Far From the Tree Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chatel Buis Chardonnay Macon Villages 2023 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Colpetrone Memoria Sagrantino di Montefalco 2015 red · 750 ml | $16.19 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Les Champgains Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $71.73 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Louis Jadot Gevrey Chambertin Estournelles Saint Jacques 1er Cru 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $75.03 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Long Meadow Ranch Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $35.73 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Majuelos Bufona Single Vineyard Tempranillo Ribera Del Duero 2018 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $8.23 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford Single Vineyard C C Ranch Vineyard 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stags' Leap Merlot Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.93 $43.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Taylor Golden Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Trambusti Sentimento Toscana Rosso red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +5% if it rises |
| Trefethen Dragon's Tooth Red Wine Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Merlot red · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +12% if it rises |
| Bully Hill Vineyards Goat White white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.89 | 0.0% | ▲ 14.8% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Chateau Beauchene Vignobles Chateauneuf du Pape Blanc 2023 white · Rhone · 750 ml | $31.99 $34.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Leoville Barton Saint Julien 2019 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $250 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau la Dominique Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2021 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $43.93 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Feuerheerd's Douro Red Anchor Wrap 2019 red · Douro · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Meu Albarino Ribeiro 2022 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sea Pearl Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stoller Winery Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trisaetum Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Weis Cabernet Franc Finger Lakes 2023 red · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $20.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau D'Emeringes Beaujolais Villages Vieilles Vignes Blanc 2021 white · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Coelho Bunny Cuvee Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Harvey's Bristol Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $19.99 Sale | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 17.7% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +10% if it rises |
| Vinos de Potrero Malbec Uco Valley World Cup Edition 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Barefoot Bubbly Brut Rose sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.49 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Board Track Racer The Vincent Red Blend 2019 red · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Calvet Sauvignon Blanc Touraine Loire Valley white · Loire · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +8% if it rises |
| Chateau Le Puy Duc des Nauves Vin de France Rouge 2018 red · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Talbot Saint Julien 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $84.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cornerstone Cellars Sauvignon Blanc Farina Vineyard Sonoma Mountain Sonoma County 2018 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $17.53 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Golden Gate Cellars Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $10.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hogue Cellars Riesling Columbia Valley 2022 white · Washington · 750 ml | $7.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $110 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta le Colonne Vermentino Costa Toscana 2023 white · Tuscany · 750 ml | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zenato Alanera Rosso Veronese 2018 red · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Serene Evenstad Reserve Chardonnay 2018 white · 750 ml | $19.43 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Goretti Montefalco Sagrantino 2016 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Henriot Champagne Millesime 2012 sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml | $110 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jean Luc Colombo Les Girelles Picpoul de Pinet 2022 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| King of Stones Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $11.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Krasno Sauvignonasse Slovenia 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Cadeau Estate Pinot Noir Chehalem Mountains 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery C C Ranch Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pradorey Finca Valdelayegua Crianza 2022 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Zuccardi Q Cabernet Sauvignon Valle de Uco 2019 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Finca Decero Cabernet Sauvignon Agrelo 2019 red · 750 ml | $9.59 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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