Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Freemark Abbey Merlot Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $14.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gundlach Bundschu Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma Valley Sonoma County 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $16.23 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jayson by Pahlmeyer Chardonnay Napa Valley 2022 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $38.99 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Bernkasteler Lay Mosel Auslese 2020 white · Mosel · 750 ml | $31.53 $62.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ram's Gate Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $45.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Two Vintners Winery Syrah Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Argyle Pinot Noir Willamette Valley Reserve red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $40.99 | ▼ 12.4% | ▼ 8.9% | Fairly priced | 18% typically +7% if it rises |
| Charles Krug Family Reserve Generations Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Louis Jadot Le Vaucrain Cote de Nuits Villages Rouge 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $35.73 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Loveblock Pinot Noir Central Otago 2021 red · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Shafer TD9 Red Blend Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Brittan Vineyards Pinot Noir Estate McMinnville 2017 red · 750 ml | $17.53 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Meyer Fonne Riesling Reserve Alsace 2023 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Pinot Noir Vieilles Vignes 2022 red · 750 ml | $34.19 $56.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cloudy Bay Pinot Noir Marlborough 2023 red · Marlborough · 750 ml | $42.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Grand Marnier Cordon Rouge with 2 Flute Glasses Gift Set red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +5% if it rises |
| Grgich Hills Estate Sauvignon Blanc Napa Valley 2018 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $31.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ken Wright Cellars Pinot Noir Eola Amity Hills 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Paul Hobbs Chardonnay Russian River Valley 2021 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| San Felice Il Grigio Chianti Classico Riserva 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vignoble Dauny Caillottes Sancerre Blanc 2023 white · Loire · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sterling Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.49 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Chateau d'Armailhac Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Thevenot LeBrun Les Renardes Bourgogne Hautes Cotes de Nuits 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $28.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Moet and Chandon Imperial Champagne Rose sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $64.99 | ▼ 1.5% | ▲ 14.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Moet and Chandon Imperial Champagne Brut sparkling · Champagne · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $30.99 | ▲ 3.3% | ▲ 24.0% | Fairly priced | 12% typically +6% if it rises |
| Domaine Nico Grand Mere Pinot Noir Soeur et Freres Uco Valley 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fess Parker Winery Syrah Santa Barbara County 2021 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $27.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Roland Tissier et Fils Sancerre Blanc 2021 white · Loire · 750 ml | $28.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Serge Dagueneau Les Pentes Pouilly Fume 2021 white · Loire · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sleight of Hands Cellars Conjurer Red Blend Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau La Louviere Pessac Leognan Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $46.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Dragon de Quintus Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Moet and Chandon Nectar Imperial Champagne sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $59.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Vietti Castiglione Barolo 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cascade Cliffs Vineyard Merlot Red Mountain 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Picque Caillou Pessac Leognan Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dievole Vigna Di Sessina Chianti Classico Gran Selezione 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.93 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Haut Bailly II Pessac Leognan Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $17.43 $62.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Banshee Morning Light Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $27.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine du Pere Caboche Elisabeth Chambellan Chateauneuf du Pape Vieilles Vignes Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gerard and Pierre Morin Sancerre Rose 2023 rosé · Loire · 750 ml | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta Le Colonne Bolgheri Rosso 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $8.03 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cloudy Bay Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough white · Marlborough · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $32.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Fess Parker Ashley's Pinot Noir Santa Rita Hills 2020 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $27.53 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Marc Hebrart Brut Rose Champagne 1er Cru sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $64.99 $69.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 12% typically +6% if it rises |
| Waris Hubert Lilyale Blanc de Blancs Zero Dosage Champagne Grand Cru sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.73 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Albino Rocca Barbaresco Ronchi 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $38.99 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Saxon Brown Pinot Noir Fighting Brothers Sonoma Coast 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $16.23 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau La Croix du Casse Pomerol 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $13.43 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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