Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dow's Tawny Porto 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $140 | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Williams and Humbert Dry Sack Sherry Medium Dry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | ▲ 7.3% | ▲ 11.8% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +4% if it rises |
| Taylor Port Black dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $38.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 21.9% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Bruichladdich Islay Single Malt Port Charlotte 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | 92% premium | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Hartley And Gibson Amontillado Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Hartley And Gibson Cream Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Hartley And Gibson Fino Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Hartley And Gibson Oloroso Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Graham's Six Grapes Porto Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Alvear PX Sherry Spain dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Blandy's Bual Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Warre's Warrior Reserve Ruby Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Tio Pepe Fino Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Taylor Port dessert · Douro · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Sherry Cream dessert · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Sherry Dry dessert · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Croft Pink Port Douro Valley Porto dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Rozes Porto Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Port 30 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $148 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Savory and James Deluxe Amontillado Medium Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 15 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $53.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Rozes 20 Years Old Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | 168% premium | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Fonseca Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $60.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Rainwater Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Botani Old Vine Moscatel dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Hartley And Gibson Pedro Ximenez Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | 52% premium | 5% |
| Alvear Cream Sherry Montilla Moriles dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Alvear Fino Sherry Montilla Moriles dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Lustau Peninsula Palo Cortado Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 $24.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Chocolate Bar Port Red Wine dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Lustau Don Nuno Oloroso Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $38.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Taylor Port Variety Pack 2x750 mL dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.03 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Dow's Late Bottled Vintage Ruby Port 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $27.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $52.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 3.6% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Williams and Humbert Dry Sack Medium Sherry with Glass dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Broadbent Rainwater Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Botani Old Vines Moscatel 2024 dessert · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| G and D Marsala Private Stock dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.23 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 18.6% | 47% below | 2% |
| Paul Masson Madeira dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.23 $7.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.3% | 43% below | 2% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $52.99 $56.99 Sale | ▲ 14.0% | — | 54% premium | 2% |
| Delaforce Curious and Ancient Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Delaforce His Eminence's Choice Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $45.99 | ▲ 7.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Maynard's Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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