Duckhorn Three Palms Merlot 2021
red · 750 ml · 2021 vintage · tracked since Q3 2024
Shelf price, Q3 2026
$83.99 $140 Clearance
9 quarters on record · 0 list-price changes · on sale in 1
List-price change, past year
0.0%
Past 5 years: —
Outlook for the next 12 months
<1% chance of a rise
typically +9% · <1% chance of a cut (typically -23%)
List priceSale / clearance priceForecast (median)80% forecast range
Show prices and forecast as a table
| Quarter | List | Sale | Forecast (80% range) | Chance higher |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 2027 | $140 ($140–$140) | <1% | ||
| Q2 2027 | $140 ($140–$140) | <1% | ||
| Q1 2027 | $140 ($140–$140) | <1% | ||
| Q4 2026 | $140 ($140–$140) | <1% | ||
| Q3 2026 | $140 | $83.99 | ||
| Q2 2026 | $140 | $83.99 | ||
| Q1 2026 | $140 | $120 | ||
| Q4 2025 | $140 | |||
| Q3 2025 | $140 | |||
| Q2 2025 | $140 | |||
| Q1 2025 | $140 | |||
| Q4 2024 | $140 | |||
| Q3 2024 | $140 |
Chance the list price will differ from today's $140
By
Higher
Lower
Q4 2026
<1%
<1%
Q1 2027
<1%
<1%
Q2 2027
<1%
<1%
Q3 2027
<1%
<1%
Fair price
$32.09
Comparable wines cost $13.72–$69.69 (80% range). At $140 it carries a 336% premium: often reputation or scarcity the model can't see.
Typical drinking window
2026–2036
In its window now · rule of thumb, typical for luxury red wine from this category
Next vintage (2022) vs this one
13% chance priced higher
Typical change +1.1% (80% range -15.8% to 32.3%) · 58% chance priced lower
Why this outlook?
Get a plain-English explanation of this wine's forecast, fair price and vintage outlook, written by Amazon Nova on Amazon Bedrock using only the numbers on this page.
What if?
Change today's price or promotion and the model re-scores this wine live. It is currently on clearance.
Promotion
Model hgbq-20260928-160312: Gradient-boosted price-change classifier + conformal quantile range (global, direct multi-horizon).