Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emilio Lustau East India Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 $27.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 43% premium | 14% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 13% typically +7% if it rises |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 10 Year Old Gift Set dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $36.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Sercial Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +10% if it rises |
| Feuerheerd's Twenty Year Tawny Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +10% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Porto Late Bottled Vintage dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.49 | ▲ 15.7% | ▲ 20.5% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $66.99 $70.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Blandy's Sercial Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Lustau San Emilio PX Jerez Xeres Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $33.99 $37.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $70.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Sandeman Porto Founders Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | ▲ 11.1% | ▲ 36.4% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Taylor Fladgate Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $36.99 | ▲ 5.7% | ▲ 23.3% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Dow's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $38.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 21.9% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
| Bruichladdich Islay Single Malt Port Charlotte 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | 92% premium | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Graham's Six Grapes Porto Reserve dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Blandy's Bual Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 10 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Blandy's Malmsey Madeira 15 Year Old dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $53.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Rozes 20 Years Old Port dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | 168% premium | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Fonseca Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $60.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +7% if it rises |
| Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Graham's Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $38.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Blandy's Verdelho Madeira 5 Year Old dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Dow's Late Bottled Vintage Ruby Port 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $27.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Warre's Otima Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $52.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 3.6% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $52.99 $56.99 Sale | ▲ 14.0% | — | 54% premium | 2% |
| Delaforce Curious and Ancient Tawny Porto 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Delaforce His Eminence's Choice Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $45.99 | ▲ 7.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Maynard's Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Lafaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2022 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $62.99 | 0.0% | — | 177% premium | 1% |
| Quinta da Pacheca Late Bottled Port 2018 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $25.99 $27.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Porto 20 Year Old Gift Set dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.59 $65.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Harvey's Bristol Cream Sherry dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.63 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | 52% premium | 1% |
| Royal Oporto Tawny Port 20 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $43.19 $71.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dios Baco Elite Amontillado Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.23 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 44% premium | 1% |
| Dios Baco Esnobista Moscatel Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.33 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 51% premium | 1% |
| Presidential Tawny Port 20 Year Old Ships Decanter dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $35.03 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Zigu Dessert Wine Kakheti dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.73 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 89% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Guiraud Sauternes 2023 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $50.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Suduiraut Sauternes 2019 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $42.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Amontillado 15 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Oloroso 15 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Pedro Ximenez 15 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Doisy Vedrines Sauternes 2020 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $28.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Williams and Humbert Don Zoilo Manzanilla 5 Year Sherry dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.93 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Clos Haut Peyraguey Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Rozes Infanta Isabel Tawny Porto 10 Year Old dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Sigalas Rabaud Sauternes 2018 dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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