Cellar Index
Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today

Wine prices, tracked and forecast

Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.

How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Popular winesMost likely to riseCollector watchBest valuesAll wines

Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.

WineShelf price1yr History5yr Historyvs fair priceChance of a rise within a year
Maynard's Late Bottle Vintage Porto 2017
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$5.93 $19.99 Clearance 0.0%—68% below<1%
Royal Oporto Late Bottle Vintage Porto 2016
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$5.93 $19.99 Clearance 0.0%—62% below<1%
Opici Vineyards Madeira
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$8.99 0.0%—58% below8%
typically +10% if it rises
Chateau Suduiraut Lions de Suduiraut Sauternes 2020
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$16.99 0.0%—53% below1%
Chateau Suduiraut Lions de Suduiraut Sauternes 2018
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$10.19 $16.99 Clearance 0.0%—49% below<1%
G and D Marsala Private Stock
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$2.23 $8.29 Clearance 0.0%▲ 18.6%47% below2%
Chateau Suduiraut Lions de Suduiraut Sauternes 2017
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$17.99 0.0%—46% below1%
Chateau Guiraud Petit Guiraud Sauternes 2020
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$5.33 $17.99 Clearance 0.0%—45% below<1%
Taylor Tawny Port
dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$14.99 0.0%▲ 36.4%44% below8%
typically +4% if it rises
Jorge Ordonez Botani Moscatel Old Vines Sierras de Malaga 2019
dessert · 750 ml
$12.99 0.0%—44% below1%
Paul Masson Madeira
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$2.23 $7.29 Clearance 0.0%▲ 4.3%43% below2%
Taylor Port
dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$5.99 0.0%—42% below14%
typically +14% if it rises
Taylor Fladgate Port First Estate
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$18.99 $21.99 Sale 0.0%—41% below9%
typically +5% if it rises
Rozes Tawny Porto
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$15.99 0.0%—39% below7%
typically +6% if it rises
Dios Baco Ria Pita Manzanilla Sherry
dessert · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$7.03 $13.99 Clearance 0.0%—35% below1%
Penfolds Club Tawny Port Australia
dessert · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$12.99 0.0%—34% below8%
typically +8% if it rises
Taylor Port
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$8.99 0.0%▲ 28.6%34% below7%
typically +8% if it rises
Fonseca Bin 27 Reserve Port
dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$11.99 $12.99 Sale——29% below9%
typically +8% if it rises
Opici Vineyards Marsala
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$8.99 0.0%—27% below8%
typically +10% if it rises
Disznoko Tokaji Late Harvest 2020
dessert · 500 ml
$14.39 $23.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Royal Oporto Late Bottled Vintage Porto 2018
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$13.79 $22.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Taylor Dry Sherry
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$8.99 0.0%▲ 28.6%Fairly priced7%
typically +8% if it rises
Cockburn's Port Special Reserve
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$19.79 0.0%▲ 4.2%Fairly priced7%
typically +9% if it rises
Warre's Warrior Reserve Ruby Porto
dessert · Douro · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$11.99 0.0%—Fairly priced8%
typically +8% if it rises
Feuerheerd's Douro Red Reserva Anchor Wine Port Barrel Aged 2018
dessert · Douro · 750 ml
$7.53 $14.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Taylor Port Variety Pack 2x750 mL
dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$12.03 $15.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced2%
Chateau Bastor Lamontagne Sauternes 2022
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$24.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Chateau Carmes de Rieussec Sauternes 2018
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$18.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Bodegas Xalo Bahia de Denia Moscatel Alicante 2023
dessert · 750 ml
$7.19 $11.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Carmes de Rieussec Sauternes 2019
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$11.99 $19.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Castello di Meleto Vin Santo del Chianti Classico 2010
dessert · Tuscany · 375 ml
$24.99 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Taylor Golden Sherry
dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$4.13 $13.99 Clearance 0.0%▲ 27.3%Fairly priced1%
Harvey's Bristol Cream Sherry
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$18.99 $19.99 Sale▲ 11.1%▲ 17.7%Fairly priced11%
typically +5% if it rises
Castello di Meleto Vin Santo del Chianti Classico 2011
dessert · Tuscany · 375 ml
$6.93 $24.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Bostavan Pastoral Etulia Red Dessert Moldova
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$11.99 0.0%—Fairly priced9%
typically +8% if it rises
La Chapelle de Lafaurie Peyraguey Sauternes 2017
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$11.99 $19.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Taylor Marsala
dessert · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$14.99 0.0%▲ 36.4%Fairly priced8%
typically +4% if it rises
Chateau Laribotte Sauternes 2018
dessert · Bordeaux · 375 ml
$16.43 $21.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Harsanyi Hizelgo Furmint Late Harvest Tokaji 2018
dessert · 500 ml
$19.99 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Delaforce Fine Tawny Porto
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$8.99 $14.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Christian Brothers Cream Sherry California
dessert · California Central Valley · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$5.99 $11.99 Clearance 0.0% 0.0%Fairly priced1%
1924 Port Barrel Pinot Noir
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$4.73 $16.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Cockburn's Porto Branco Fine White Port
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$13.99 $15.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced11%
typically +6% if it rises
Sawmill Creek Vidal Blanc Ice Wine Canada 2018
dessert · 375 ml
$24.99 0.0%—Fairly priced<1%
Emilio Lustau Fino Jarana Solera Sherry
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$14.99 $17.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced7%
typically +6% if it rises
Warre's Kings Tawny Porto
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$18.99 0.0%—Fairly priced7%
typically +5% if it rises
Taylor Port
dessert · Douro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$14.99 0.0%▲ 36.4%Fairly priced8%
typically +4% if it rises
Pigtown Sweet Red Dessert Wine
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$3.23 $10.99 Clearance 0.0%—Fairly priced1%
Rozes Porto Reserve
dessert · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$16.99 $19.99 Sale 0.0%—Fairly priced6%
typically +5% if it rises
Williams and Humbert Dry Sack Medium Sherry with Glass
dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed
$10.19 $16.99 Clearance 0.0% 0.0%Fairly priced2%
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