Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wellsley Farms Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Cavit Riesling white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | ▲ 12.5% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Dark Horse Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Hex Vom Dasenstein Pinot Noir Baden 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jose Antonio Garcia Unculin Mencia Bierzo 2020 red · 750 ml | $6.73 $20.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Schild Estate GMS Red Blend Barossa Valley 2018 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Six Hats South Africa Sauvignon Blanc 2024 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sterling Vineyards Vintner's Collection Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.63 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▼ 20.6% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vietti Tre Vigne Barbera d'Asti 2019 sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carski Emporia Zilavka Mostar 2021 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Corte Giacobbe Soave 2023 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $9.59 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Fond Croze Shyrus Cotes du Rhone Villages Vaison la Romaine 2023 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 8% premium | <1% |
| Fish Eye Chardonnay white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 23.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Francis Coppola Diamond Collection Pinot Noir Monterey County red · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.49 | ▲ 2.6% | ▼ 2.5% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Hanna Sauvignon Blanc Russian River Valley white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Hectic Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough white · Marlborough · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 21.7% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Le Paradou Cinsault IGP Mediterannee Rouge 2024 red · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Stoneburn Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.56 $13.13 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Westmount Gamay Noir Willamette Valley 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Apollos Praise Cabernet Franc Picardie Finger Lakes 2024 red · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $22.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Asconi Old Tavern Isabella Rose Moldova rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bitch Grenache Calatayud 2023 red · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bota Box Nighthawk Rum Barrel Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 $24.99 Sale | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +4% if it rises |
| Dupere Barrera En Caractere Rose Coteaux d'Aix en Provence 2021 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Earthquake Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi 2022 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | 8% premium | <1% |
| Koyle Costa Cuarzo Sauvignon Blanc Paredones 2022 white · 750 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Lenz Moser Blaufrankisch Burgenland 2020 red · 1000 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Ema Select Terroir Sauvignon Blanc Maipo Valley Reserva 2021 white · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 8% premium | <1% |
| Starborough Starlite Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough white · Marlborough · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $16.99 Sale | ▲ 13.3% | — | Fairly priced | 19% typically +4% if it rises |
| Wimmer Gruner Veltliner 2023 white · 1000 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 8% premium | <1% |
| Big House Wine Co Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | 8% premium | 4% |
| Castle Rock Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve Alexander Valley 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $10.13 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Diemersdal Shiraz Cape Town 2023 red · 750 ml | $10.13 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franzia Bold and Jammy Cabernet Sauvignon red · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.0% | Fairly priced | 28% typically +4% if it rises |
| Frescobaldi Tenuta Perano Chianti Classico 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Go Vinho Verde 2023 white · Vinho Verde · 750 ml | $7.43 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hazlitt 1852 Vineyards Red Cat Sangria red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | ▲ 11.8% | ▲ 35.7% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Kenwood Discoveries Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.79 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 11.4% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Routestock Chardonnay Sonoma Coast 2022 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $13.79 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Schmitt Sohne Relax Pink Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Albert Besombes Les Anges Pinot Noir Vin de France 2021 red · 750 ml | $11.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Amador Medrano Irazu El Encinal Terra Rioja 2021 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $14.39 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Shiraz red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | 9% premium | 3% |
| Jas des Vignes Rose Alpes de Haute Provence 2023 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Josh Cellars Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 $16.99 Sale | ▲ 9.0% | ▲ 13.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Lava Cap Sangiovese El Dorado Sierra Foothills 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mom Juice Sauvignon Blanc North Coast 2024 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Merlot red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Primal Roots Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.24 $12.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.2% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Silver Thread Dry Riesling Finger Lakes 2023 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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