Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lungarotti Rosso di Torgiano Rubesco 2021 red · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Cabernet Sauvignon Vaca Vista Oak Knoll Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 $130 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cellars Unio Tendral Seleccion Red Priorat 2018 red · Priorat · 750 ml | $8.93 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| J Harden Cabernet Sauvignon California 2021 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Cabernet Sauvignon CC Ranch Rutheford Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 $130 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pra Morandina Valpolicella Ripasso Superiore 2019 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $11.93 $38.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pulenta Estate Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 41% premium | <1% |
| Succession Wines Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 41% premium | <1% |
| Mastroberardino Radici Taurasi 2018 red · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Gruaud Larose Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $38.93 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Winery Red Blend Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $44.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 13% typically +6% if it rises |
| Ca di Pesa Chianti Classico Riserva 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Canon la Gaffeliere Saint Emilion 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Saint Sulpice Bordeaux Rouge red · Bordeaux · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | ▲ 1.0% | ▲ 5.3% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +5% if it rises |
| Georges Duboeuf Domaines Des Quatre Vents Fleurie 2022 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $17.99 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 42% premium | <1% |
| Casa Maschito Basilicata Rosso 2017 red · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| L'Ecole No 41 Apogee Pepper Bridge Vineyard Walla Walla 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rocca delle Macie Chianti Classico Riserva red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $32.99 $34.99 Sale | ▲ 16.7% | ▲ 40.0% | 42% premium | 2% |
| J Vineyards Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beringer Cabernet Sauvignon Knights Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $34.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.4% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Chateau Durfort Vivens Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $59.93 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Liberty School Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2021 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Argyros Atlantis Red Santorini 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Berliquet Saint Emilion 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Merlot Three Palms Vineyard Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $34.93 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Georges Duboeuf Jean Ernest Descombes Morgon Cote du Puy 2020 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $8.93 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Time and Direction Wines Binary Syrah Walla Walla 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frescobaldi Nipozzano Chianti Riserva Rufina 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gerard Bertrand Orange Gold made with Organic Grapes Vin de France 2020 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 42% premium | <1% |
| Funckenhausen Malbec Mendoza La Espera 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hazlitt 1852 Vineyards Red Cat Party Pouch Finger Lakes red · Finger Lakes · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $28.99 | 0.0% | — | 42% premium | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Robert Mondavi Winery The Estates Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia El Zorrito Natural Orange Wine Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Speri Vigneti Monte Sant'Urbano Amarone della Valpolicella Classico 2016 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $84.99 | 0.0% | — | 42% premium | <1% |
| Marcarini Barolo Brunate 2016 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $42.03 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alamos Seleccion Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 11.1% | 43% premium | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Chateau Clerc Milon Pauillac 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $130 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Delille Cellars D2 Red Blend Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $23.99 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gavalas Vinsanto Santorini 2013 red · 500 ml | $59.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stuhlmuller Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Beaumont Haut Medoc 2021 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $13.93 $43.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Spinona Sori Gepin Barolo Bergera 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $47.73 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Postmark Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles red · Paso Robles · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.99 $29.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 12% typically +5% if it rises |
| J Lohr Seven Oaks Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles red · Paso Robles · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.89 $22.89 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 20.5% | 43% premium | 4% |
| Meiomi Pinot Noir red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2023 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $275 | — | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +36% if it rises |
| Mark Ryan Winery Dissident Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Valo Intemporal Red Blend Conner Lee Vineyard Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $23.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zuccardi Q Malbec Uco Valley 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 43% premium | <1% |
| Quest Red Blend Paso Robles 2021 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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