Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAOU Vineyards and Winery Bodyguard Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Our Daily Cab Organic Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% premium | 1% |
| Rainstorm Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 | ▲ 5.0% | ▲ 10.5% | Fairly priced | 26% typically +5% if it rises |
| Zuccardi Q Malbec Uco Valley 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 38% premium | <1% |
| Bookwalter Winery Readers Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% premium | <1% |
| Chateau Potensac Medoc 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $39.99 $42.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Freire Lobo Vigno Granite Terroir Blend Dao 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 38% premium | <1% |
| Arundel Cellars Falcon Red Lake Erie red · Lake Erie · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.33 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | 38% premium | 1% |
| Eshcol Ranch Red Blend Trefethen Vineyards red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.33 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Mastroberardino Radici Taurasi 2017 red · 750 ml | $35.73 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Layer Cake Pinot Noir Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.21 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Punset Barbaresco Campo Quadro 2015 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $32.99 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $250 $450 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dominio Los Pinos La Sort 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 39% premium | <1% |
| Francis Coppola Director?s Cut Red Blend Cinema Sonoma County 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | 39% premium | 1% |
| Tenuta Meraviglia Bolgheri Rosso 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alexander Valley Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Bolla Amarone Della Valpolicella Classico red · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $49.99 | ▲ 0.2% | ▲ 8.7% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +5% if it rises |
| Parker Estate Terra Rossa Cabernet Sauvignon Coonawarra 2021 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Basel Cellars Merriment Columbia Valley 2017 red · Washington · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Calon Segur Saint Estephe 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $150 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Pichon Longueville Comtesse de Lalande Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $144 $231 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Els Vinyerons Lluerna Xarel lo Penedes 2020 red · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Layer Cake Jampacked Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.33 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Silenus Merlot Oak Knoll District 2017 red · 750 ml | $12.73 $42.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Borgo Paglianetto Petrara Verdicchio di Matelica 2022 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gnarly Head 1924 Whiskey Barrel Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.49 $19.49 Sale | ▲ 2.6% | — | 39% premium | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Castello di Meleto Chianti Classico Riserva 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lajver Incognito Kekfrankos Hungary 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.73 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ramon Bilbao Limited Edition Garnacha red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% premium | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Raptor Ridge Pinot Noir Temperance Hill Vineyard Willamette Valley 2018 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Riley's Rows Pinot Noir North Coast 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Open Claim Vineyards Estate Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $20.93 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Orin Swift Machete Red Blend California 2022 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $38.99 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 40% premium | <1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Rio Sordo 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $82.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yori Wine Cellars Cabernet Franc red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | — | — | 40% premium | 7% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bogle Vineyards Phantom Red Wine red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | ▼ 9.1% | — | 40% premium | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Chateau Fourcas Hosten Listrac Medoc Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Cadeau Diversite Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $16.93 $55.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vineyard 29 Ceanda Cabernet Sauvignon St Helena 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $89.99 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau St Jean Cabernet Sauvignon Knights Valley 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $23.99 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Clerc Milon Pauillac 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $115 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Robles Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2019 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $11.03 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yarden Petit Verdot Golan Heights 2017 red · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenute Silvio Nardi Brunello di Montalcino 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Acrobat Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | 40% premium | 4% |
| Penfolds Bin 389 Cabernet Shiraz South Australia 2022 red · South Australia · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | 40% premium | 1% |
| Robert Mondavi Private Selection Cabernet Sauvignon Central Coast red · Central Coast · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 4.2% | 40% premium | 4% |
| Kristof Estate Grown Pinot Noir Yamhill Carlton 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $26.99 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| harvey and harriet Red Wine Blend San Luis Obispo County 2020 red · Central Coast · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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