Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beringer Main and Vine White Zinfandel rosé · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.49 | 0.0% | ▲ 11.5% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Castle Rock Merlot California 2020 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cellar '54 Sublime Steuben Blush Wine rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +6% if it rises |
| Chateau Le Crock Saint Estephe 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cremaschi Furlotti Reserva Sauvignon Blanc Loncomilla Valley 2023 white · 750 ml | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cristom Louise Vineyard Viognier Eola-Amity Hills 2022 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $8.93 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Gerard Tremblay Petit Chablis 2023 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $21.99 $24.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Emiliana Novas Organic Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo Valley Gran Reserva 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $7.03 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Familia Schroeder Saurus Select Chardonnay Patagonia 2020 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Henri Bourgeois Petit Bourgeois Sauvignon Blanc Vin de France 2022 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jean Foillard Morgon Cote du Py 2020 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Joh Jos Prum Riesling Spatlese Graacher Himmelreich 2022 white · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Laroque Chardonnay Cite de Carcassonne 2019 white · 750 ml | $6.03 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Laroque Chardonnay Cite de Carcassonne 2021 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mitolo Jester McLaren Vale Shiraz 2019 red · McLaren Vale · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Rutherford Single Vineyard Quarry Vineyard 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Painted Wolf The Den Chenin Blanc Swartland 2021 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pfaffl Vom Haus Muskateller Weinviertel 2022 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Skouras Moscofilero 2022 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Skyfall Vineyards Red Blend Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sonoma Cutrer Sauvignon Blanc Sonoma County 2024 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sutter Home Fruit Infusions Sweet Peach White Blend white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 12% typically +7% if it rises |
| Sweet Bitch Mango Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | ▼ 3.7% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Terra d'Oro Pinot Grigio Clarksburg 2022 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Three Finger Jack Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.49 $20.49 Sale | ▲ 2.5% | ▲ 2.5% | Fairly priced | 13% typically +5% if it rises |
| Yellow Tail Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| 9 is Enough Primitivo Rosato Puglia rosé · Puglia · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Affentaler Pinot Noir Rose Baden 2021 rosé · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bogle Vineyards Essential Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bota Box Breeze Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 19.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bota Box Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | ▲ 8.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Casas Del Bosque Sauvignon Blanc Casablanca Reserva 2021 white · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castle Rock Merlot California 2022 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cupcake Vineyards Chardonnay Monterey County white · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▼ 7.1% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Decoy Sauvignon Blanc Sonoma County white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| El Porvenir Amauta Absoluto Torrontes Cafayate Salta 2021 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elijah by Manischewitz Cabernet Sauvignon Curico Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hahn Merlot Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hermann J Wiemer Dry Riesling Seneca Lake 2022 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lunardi Pinot Grigio Delle Venezie 2021 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $7.43 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mastroberardino Lacryma Christi Bianco 2022 white · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mollydooker Enchanted Path Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mollydooker Two Left Feet Red Blend Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nine Hats Merlot Columbia Valley 2016 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Orin Swift Abstract Red 2021 red · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Overstone Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Paul Hobbs Cabernet Sauvignon Coombsville 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $71.99 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penya Viognier Cotes Catalanes 2021 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penya Viognier Cotes Catalanes 2022 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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