Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert Mondavi Private Selection Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.13 $23.89 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Baron Philippe de Rothchild Escudo Rojo Carmenere Colchagua Reserva 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 34% premium | <1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Merlot Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $41.99 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 34% premium | <1% |
| Rocca delle Macie Sasyr Tuscan Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | ▲ 10.0% | ▲ 37.5% | Fairly priced | 12% typically +6% if it rises |
| Justin Vineyards and Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2022 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Smith Haut Lafitte Pessac Leognan Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $76.53 $151 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ixsir Grande Reserve Red 2017 red · 750 ml | $18.03 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Our Daily Red Organic Red Blend red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 34% premium | 1% |
| Catena Appellation San Carlos Cabernet Franc Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | 34% premium | <1% |
| HER Shiraz Western Cape South Africa red · Western Cape · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +6% if it rises |
| Louis Jadot Domaine des Heritiers Corton Pougets Grand Cru Rouge 2021 red · 750 ml | $48.93 $161 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maquis Lien Red Blend Colchagua Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $18.03 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castello di Meleto Chianti Classico Riserva 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Beau Sejour Becot Saint Emilion 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Les Darons by Jeff Carrel Languedoc Rouge 2019 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 1500 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | 34% premium | <1% |
| Mouton Cadet Bordeaux Rouge red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.83 $22.89 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Boedecker Cellars Stewart Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2016 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vina Robles Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2021 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castello Banfi Rosso di Montalcino red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $30.49 | ▲ 1.7% | ▲ 22.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| ColleMassari Montecucco Rosso Riserva 2019 red · 750 ml | $25.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dievole Novecento Chianti Classico Riserva 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frescobaldi Nipozzano Chianti Riserva Rufina 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Solena Estate Pinot Noir Hyland Vineyard McMinnville 2022 red · 750 ml | $36.99 | 0.0% | — | 35% premium | 1% |
| Tenuta Silvio Nardi Brunello di Montalcino 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $50.99 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alvaredos Hobbs Godello Ribeira Sacra 2020 red · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barnard Griffin Rapport Columbia Valley 2016 red · Washington · 500 ml | $7.93 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tecedeiras Lilas Red Douro 2020 red · Douro · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Branas Grand Poujeaux Moulis en Medoc 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.93 $42.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| St Supery Elu Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cecchi Sangiovese Toscana red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 38.5% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Solena Estate Domaine Danielle Laurent Pinot Noir Yamhill Carlton AVA 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $23.99 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Canon Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $156 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Layer Cake Malbec red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | 35% premium | 4% |
| Macarico Aglianico del Vulture 2022 red · 750 ml | $13.13 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Thorn Hill Vineyards Big Magic Red Lake County 2019 red · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Martin Clerc Condrieu 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $32.99 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hess Collection Cabernet Sauvignon Mount Veeder Estate 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $50.99 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Karim Vionnet Beaujolais Villages 2021 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $18.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 35% premium | <1% |
| Opus One Red Blend Rutherford Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $258 $430 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Crios Sustentia Malbec Organic Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Merryvale Profile Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $68.93 $225 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Clos du Marquis Saint Julien 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $130 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Keenan Capstone Spring Mountain District Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $25.43 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kith and Kin Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $47.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Gruaud Larose Saint Julien 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $127 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Inglenook Rubicon Rutherford 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $100 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rodney Strong Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley Reserve red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $52.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 6.0% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +8% if it rises |
| Tenshen Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles red · Paso Robles · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | 36% premium | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Cannonball Merlot California 2019 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 36% premium | <1% |
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