Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau Palmer Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $150 $500 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Merlot Three Palms Vineyard Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $30.93 $115 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lake Sonoma Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Canon la Gaffeliere Saint Emilion 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $65.93 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Rioja Alta Tempranillo Vina Aran Rioja Gran Reserva 2014 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $53.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Los Helechos Ensemblados Malbec Uco Valley 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | <1% |
| St Supery Elu Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $27.93 $87.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wine Chat A Grown Up Stocking Stuffer Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | ▲ 7.7% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Bodegas Ondalan 100 Abades Graciano Rioja 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $19.79 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Boutinot Les Coteaux Schisteux Cotes du Rhone Villages Seguret Rouge 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Ste Michelle Cabernet Sauvignon Indian Wells Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Luca Old Vine Malbec Mendoza 2019 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta Regaleali Grillo Sicilia 2022 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaulieu Vineyard Georges De Latour Private Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $102 $170 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Pinot Noir Two Creeks Andersen Vally 2022 red · 750 ml | $33.03 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | <1% |
| Domaine Charvin Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $74.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Les Boudots Nuits Saint Georges 1er Cru 2018 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $65.03 $125 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32% premium | <1% |
| Dona Paula Estate Malbec Mendoza red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +4% if it rises |
| Muga Anden Crianza Rioja 2023 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jean Manciat Macon Charnay 2023 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $23.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Natura Pinot Noir Twin Pack 2x750 mL red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.23 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Palmer Alter Ego Margaux 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Rauzan Segla Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $200 $300 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de la Grosse Pierre Claudius Chiroubles 2019 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $14.03 $28.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Famiglie Montepulciano d'Abruzzo red · Abruzzo · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.59 | 0.0% | — | 32% premium | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Cakebread Cellars Merlot Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $52.43 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Chateau de Beaucastel Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $99.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Dancing Crow Vineyards Old Stake 1901 Cabernet Sauvignon Lake County 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.13 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Alain Voge Les Vieilles Vignes Cornas 2018 red · 750 ml | $63.73 $84.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lothian of Elgin Pinot Noir 2021 red · 750 ml | $17.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Beauregard Pomerol 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $29.93 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Howell Mountain Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Howell Mountain 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $99.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Lafon Rochet Saint Estephe 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $74.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Charvin Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $44.99 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 33% premium | <1% |
| Groth Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $115 $185 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| SoDo Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Deadbird red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.13 $20.79 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Feudi di San Gregorio Taurasi 2019 red · 750 ml | $48.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Di Giovanna V18 Vasca Diciotto Nero d'Avola Sicilia 2022 red · Sicily · 3000 ml | $31.99 | ▲ 6.7% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Conde Valdemar Rioja Reserva 2018 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fabien Jouves Haute Cote de Fruit Malbec Cahors 2023 red · 750 ml | $20.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Saracina Soul of Mendocino Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 $26.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 15% typically +5% if it rises |
| Walter Hansel Cahill Lane Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $30.53 $57.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Auntsfield Pinot Noir Marlborough 2020 red · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Unshackled Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▼ 14.8% | ▼ 11.5% | Fairly priced | 19% typically +4% if it rises |
| Acclivity Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Cantenac Brown Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Cordero di Montezemolo Langhe Arneis 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Dupeuble Beaujolais Rouge 2023 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 34% premium | <1% |
| King Estate Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.43 $31.19 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 11.4% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Jean Marc Burgaud Beaujolais Morgon 2022 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $7.23 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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