Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sequoia Grove Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2022 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $32.99 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Umberto Cesari Sangiovese Reserva red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | 30% premium | 3% |
| Castello Banfi Brunello di Montalcino red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $78.49 | ▲ 0.6% | ▲ 7.5% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| La Crema Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 $29.99 Sale | ▼ 3.8% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Santa Julia El Cabrito Natural Cabernet Sauvignon Maipu 2023 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cakebread Cellars Merlot Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $64.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cos D'Estournel Saint Estephe Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $95.93 $320 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| E Guigal Chateau de Nalys Chateauneuf du Pape 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $65.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lucky Draw Cabernet Sauvignon California 2019 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Force Majeure Cabernet Sauvignon Red Mountain Estate Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $79.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Masseria Li Veli Orion Primitivo Salento 2023 red · Puglia · 750 ml | $15.99 $16.99 Sale | ▲ 6.3% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Nine Hats Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castello di Meleto Chianti Classico Gran Selezione 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $22.53 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Les Boudots Nuits Saint Georges 1er Cru Rouge 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $43.93 $142 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% premium | <1% |
| Oberon Cabernet Sauvignon Napa County red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.19 $31.19 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Vina Santa Rita Triple C Red Blend Maipo Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Whitehall Lane Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Villa Antinori Chianti Classico Riserva 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.99 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| J Bookwalter Protagonist Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $22.73 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Ragose Valpolicella Ripasso Classico Superiore 2021 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaux Freres Belles Soeurs Pinot Noir Ribon Ridge Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $59.73 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Chateau de Beaucastel Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $95.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Orin Swift Mercury Head Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $130 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vincent Girardin Les Genevrieres 1er Cru Meursault 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $160 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wente Vineyards Winemakers Selection Meritage Livermore Valley 2018 red · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ben Marco Sin Limites Malbec Organic Uco Valley 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Haut Bailly Pessac Leognan 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $59.93 $200 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Recougne Bordeaux Superieur Rouge red · Bordeaux · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 10% typically +9% if it rises |
| Domaine Serene Yamhill Cuvee Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $38.99 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Gaps Crown Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $48.93 $175 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Nine Hats Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vietti Castiglione Barolo 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $41.99 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| A to Z Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Chateau Margaux Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $1,000 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Parent Les Chanlins Pommard 1er Cru 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $70.03 $140 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Tardieu Laurent Chateauneuf du Pape Vieilles Vignes Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.43 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Magna Montis Malbec Tupungato Uco Valley 2024 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Nine Hats Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau La Fleur Saint Emilion 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.93 $42.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Lafon Rochet Saint Estephe 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $20.73 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cornerstone Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Benchlands Napa Valley 2016 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $35.03 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sterling Vineyards Merlot Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.33 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Villa a Sesta Chianti Classico Riserva 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $25.99 $29.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Willamette Valley Vineyards Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $34.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.4% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Zensa Organico Primitivo Puglia 2020 red · Puglia · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Castle Rock Pinot Noir Reserve Russian River Valley 2022 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Matias Riccitelli This is Not Another Lovely Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% premium | <1% |
| Long Shadows Chester Kidder Red Blend Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pinhal da Torre Executivo 2017 red · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Quailhurst Vineyard Estate Classique Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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