Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mastroberardino Falanghina Sannio 2021 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Red Blend Whiskey Barrel Aged red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.13 $10.39 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Merlot Three Palms Vineyard Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $55.03 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Francesco Boschis Dolcetto di Dogliani Vigna dei Prey 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lion Tamer Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Peju Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $66.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +5% if it rises |
| Rutini Cabernet Malbec Blend Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Saracina Skid Row Malbec Mendocino County 2018 red · 750 ml | $15.03 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Muriel Fincas de la Villa Reserva Rioja 2017 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vidal Fleury Vacqueyras 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $9.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Virtue Cellars Fortitude Bordeaux Blend Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% premium | 1% |
| Aldo Conterno Barolo Bussia 2017 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $74.93 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodega Piedra Negra Organic Malbec Reserve Los Chacayes 2020 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Fernand and Fils Coteaux Du Giennois Pinot Noir 2022 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lolea Red Sangria red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Santa Julia El Burro Natural Malbec Maipu 2024 red · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Stark Conde Cabernet Sauvignon Stellenbosch 2020 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $28.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Torbreck Woodcutter's Shiraz Barossa Valley 2021 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Gruaud Larose Saint Julien 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $115 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mercer Bros. Edge of Heaven Red Blend 2019 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Terras Gauda O Rosal Rias Baixas 2023 red · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vinum Cellars Typesetter Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Altovinum Evodia Garnacha Calatayud 2019 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Casas del Bosque Reserva Cabernet Sauvignon Rapel Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% premium | <1% |
| Cooper and Thief Cellarmasters Red Wine Blend Aged in Bourbon Barrels red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.4% | 26% premium | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Jolete Cabernet Sauvignon Phinny Hill Vineyard Horse Heaven Hills 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $34.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Justin Vineyards and Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2019 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Matthews Winery Matthews Cuvee Red Blend 2019 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Silverado Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon GEO Coombsville Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $47.99 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| B Side Pinot Noir North Coast red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | 26% premium | 2% |
| Calera Ryan Vineyard Pinot Noir Mt. Harlan 2021 red · 750 ml | $61.03 $94.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cantenac Brown Margaux 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Iron Horse Wedding Cuvee Green Valley 2019 red · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sojourn Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Oakville Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $28.93 $94.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chappellet Signature Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2021 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.93 $99.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Les Vergers Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $38.93 $130 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 26% premium | <1% |
| Bodegas David Moreno Rioja Crianza Family Selection 2019 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elizabeth Spencer Cabernet Sauvignon Mendocino 2020 red · 750 ml | $14.73 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gd Vajra Luigi Baudana Barolo Baudana 2019 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $28.93 $94.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia La Vacquita Natural Clarete Maipu 2024 red · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Los Vascos Cromas Gran Reserva Cabernet Sauvignon Colchagua Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $21.99 $23.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vins El Cep Pet Nat Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bledsoe McDaniels LFG Pinot Noir Willamette Valley Oregon 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $45.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bulgariana Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.53 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 27% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Clinet Pomerol 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $140 | ▲ 37.3% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Dalton Estate Merlot Galilee 2019 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $26.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Turley Zinfandel Evangelho Vineyard 2022 red · 750 ml | $54.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Berliquet Saint Emilion 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $74.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau d'Issan Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $81.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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