Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| El Primer Paso Tempranillo Toro 2021 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $6.93 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barnard Griffin Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dancing Crow Old Stake Field Blend Red 2022 red · 750 ml | $34.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine La Bastide Blanche Bandol Rouge 2020 red · Provence · 750 ml | $32.99 $34.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Santa Duc Aux Lieux Dits Gigondas 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $44.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Casa Castillo Red Blend Jumilla 2021 red · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Antonin Guyon Goudoulettes Savigny Les Beaune Rouge 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $15.93 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Maucaillou Moulis en Medoc 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chocolate Shop Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Le Petit Lion du Marquis de Las Cases Saint Julien 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Matchbook Wine Company Petite Sirah Dunnigan Hills 2019 red · 750 ml | $9.03 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Price Family Estates Three Sticks Pinot Noir Sonoma Coast 2023 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $33.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Qupe Syrah Central Coast 2021 red · Central Coast · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia El Burro Natural Malbec Maipu 2023 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zuri Getariako Txakolina 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.93 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Gruaud Larose Saint Julien 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $120 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Trotte Vieille Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2023 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $135 | — | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +35% if it rises |
| Dusky Goose Pinot Noir Dundee Hills 2017 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Echo de Lynch Bages Pauillac 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $20.43 $65.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kosta Browne Willamette Valley Pinot Noir 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $35.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| L'Ecole No 41 Ferguson Estate Ferguson Vineyard Walla Walla Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Napa Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $30.99 $33.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 13.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Salvaterra Amarone della Valpolicella 2021 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $35.99 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Board Track Racer The Shift GSM Red Blend 2019 red · 750 ml | $8.33 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Campo Viejo Rioja Reserva red · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.0% | 25% premium | 4% |
| Domaine du Cerberon Meursault Les Cras 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $26.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Apothic Dark Red Blend Limited Release red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | ▼ 6.7% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +4% if it rises |
| Dancing Crow Vineyards Corbeau Ruse Lake County 2021 red · 750 ml | $8.73 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Garnacha de Fuego 2022 red · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 25% premium | <1% |
| Septima Gran Reserva 10 Barricas Malbec Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Vina Santa Rita Medalla Real Cabernet Sauvignon Gran Reserva Maipo Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Calera de Villiers Vineyards Pinot Noir Mt Harlan 2017 red · 750 ml | $37.53 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Januik Champoux Vineyard Merlot 2018 red · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lightpost Winery Pinot Noir San Luis Obispo County Spanish Springs Vineyard Reserve 2019 red · Central Coast · 750 ml | $15.93 $57.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sokol Blosser Pinot Noir Redland Cuvee Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Chamilly Montagny les Bassets 2023 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Copain Les Voisins Syrah Yorkville Highlands 2017 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Grand Marnier Cordon Rouge red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| J Vineyards Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 13.6% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Liberty School Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles 2023 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $14.99 $15.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| North Valley Vineyards Classic Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.93 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rombauer Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 1500 ml | $170 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas LAN D 12 Crianza Rioja 2020 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Los Vascos Cromas Gran Reserva Cabernet Franc Colchagua Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Memo Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2020 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Podere Brizio Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.93 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Quinta da Fonte Souto Red Alentejo 2019 red · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Salentein Reserve Malbec Uco Valley 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Les Caillerets Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $43.93 $150 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ferrari Carano Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.23 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
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