Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Butcher's Daughter Chardonnay Pays DOc 2020 white · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Catena Classic Chardonnay Mendoza 2020 white · Mendoza · 750 ml | $14.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Concha y Toro Frontera Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot red · Rueda / Toro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Dievole Chianti Classico 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Vetriccie Red Corse 2020 red · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Les Fontanelles Sauvignon Blanc Pays d'Oc 2023 white · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| MAN Family Wines Padstal Chardonnay Coastal Region 2022 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.13 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Matua Lighter Sauvignon Blanc New Zealand white · Marlborough · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +6% if it rises |
| Ridgeback Lion Hound Sauvignon Blanc Paarl 2021 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.03 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Smoking Loon Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.83 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Stella Rosa L'Originale Moscato d'Asti sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.49 | ▲ 3.1% | ▲ 17.9% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Terre Stregate Svelato Falanghina del Sannio 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Totara Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2021 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vinum Cellars Petite Syrah Clarksburg 2021 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Yellow Tail Pinot Grigio white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Assuli Lorlando Nero d'Avola Sicilia 2019 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bargemone Rose Coteaux d'Aix en Provence 2024 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cantina del Taburno Fidelis Aglianico Taburno 2017 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carlos Serres Reserva Rioja red · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Castello di Meleto Chianti Classico Riserva 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Fourcas Dupre Listrac Medoc 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Concha y Toro Frontera Merlot red · Rueda / Toro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Durigutti Malbec Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Flickerwood Wine Cellars Riesling white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 27% typically +6% if it rises |
| Freakshow Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 13.0% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +5% if it rises |
| Hugl Gruner Veltliner Weinviertel 2024 white · 1000 ml | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Il Casato Pinot Grigio Rose Delle Venezie rosé · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.39 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +9% if it rises |
| Janare Benevento Aglianico Campania red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Mad Fish Sauvignon Blanc Semillon Western Australia 2021 white · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 4% premium | <1% |
| Tait The Ball Buster Red Blend Barossa Valley 2022 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trumpeter Torrontes Mendoza 2021 white · Mendoza · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Villa de Moreschi Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2023 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barefoot Fruitscato Peach Moscato white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 28% typically +4% if it rises |
| Butcher's Daughter Cabernet Sauvignon Pays DOc 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Diora La Petite Grace Pinot Noir Monterey 2019 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $11.53 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Skouras Zoe Red Peloponnese 2024 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Thomas Saint Veran Tradition 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fattoria del Pino Rosso di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $14.73 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Barbera d'Alba 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Honig Sauvignon Blanc Napa Valley 2020 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lagoalva Branco Tejo 2022 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| MAN Family Wines Padstal Chardonnay Coastal Region 2021 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.13 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 4% premium | <1% |
| Mount Nittany Nittany Mountain White white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.33 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sonoma Cutrer Chardonnay Sonoma Coast white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | ▲ 13.6% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Spy Valley Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 19 Crimes Cali Gold Sparkling 2x750 mL Multipack sparkling · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +6% if it rises |
| 9 is Enough Rosso Puglia red · Puglia · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 4% premium | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Autumn Frost Strawberry Rose Wine Spritzer rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +10% if it rises |
| Bel a Ciao Semillon Orange Wine Vin de France 2021 white · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carlos Serres Crianza Rioja red · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +7% if it rises |
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