Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Val di Suga Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $44.99 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alavida Organic Kosher Malbec Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hamilton Russell Vineyards Pinot Noir Hemel En Aarde Valley 2023 red · 750 ml | $57.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Recanati Merlot Galilee 2023 red · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Keenan Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $48.43 $63.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Julia Organica Malbec del Mercado red · 1000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.59 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Double Canyon Winery Red Mountain Cabernet Sauvignon 2017 red · Washington · 750 ml | $29.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Far Niente Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley Estate Bottled 2018 red · Napa Valley · 1500 ml | $275 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Santa Julia La Vaquita Natural Clarete Maipu 2023 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Villa Sparina Barbera del Monferrato 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 20% premium | 1% |
| Le Cret de Bine Le Terroir du Martin Beaujolais Rouge 2020 red · Beaujolais · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wine By Joe Pinot Noir Oregon 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Canon Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2021 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $110 $370 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Durfort Vivens Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $84.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Earthquake Zinfandel Lodi 2021 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Textbook Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles red · Paso Robles · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | 20% premium | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Charles and Charles Bolt Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Berliquet Saint Emilion 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $71.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franklin Hill Vineyards Sir Walter's Red red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Morgante Nero d'Avola 2020 red · 750 ml | $14.23 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cascade Cliffs Vineyard Cabernet Sauvignon Red Mountain 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Catena DV Tinto Historico Red Blend Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Meiomi Bright Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 12% typically +5% if it rises |
| Septima Obra Malbec Reserva Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stuhlmuller Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley 2022 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $44.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Wapisa Pinot Noir Patagonia 2022 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 20% premium | <1% |
| Alta Vista Estate Malbec Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lion Tamer Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penfolds Bin 407 Cabernet Sauvignon Australia 2021 red · Riverland (South Eastern Australia) · 750 ml | $25.93 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hareter Naturschonheit Burgenland 2020 red · 750 ml | $6.93 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Planeta Santa Cecili Nero d'Avola Noto 2016 red · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Antinori Tignanello 2020 red · 750 ml | $106 $176 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau d'Armailhac Pauillac 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Bertagna Les Murgers Nuit Saint Georges 1er Cru 2017 red · 750 ml | $60.03 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dumol Wester Reach Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2022 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $48.03 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 21% premium | <1% |
| Kermit Lynch Vin de Pays de Vaucluse Rouge 2019 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nine Hats Red Wine Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Clos de L'Oratoire Saint Emilion Grand Cru 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $64.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hanna Estate Grown Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2017 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $10.93 $35.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Marietta Cellars Old Vine Red Lot 74 red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.03 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sobon Estate Zinfandel Amador County Rocky Top 2021 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Woodbridge by Robert Mondavi Pinot Noir red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 21% premium | 7% typically +4% if it rises |
| Domaine des Escaravailles Les Sablieres Cotes du Rhone 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Monte del Fra Casa Capitei Amarone della Valpolicella Classico 2018 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $9.93 $36.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ovis Betsy's Vineyard Petite Sirah High Valley 2020 red · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pike Road Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| R Lopez de Heredia Vina Tondonia Reserva Tinto Rioja 2012 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $64.99 | ▲ 18.2% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Trefethen Estate Grown Cabernet Sauvignon Oak Knoll District of Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $21.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Los Vascos Cromas Gran Reserva Syrah Colchagua Valley 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Two Hands Lily's Garden Shiraz McLaren Vale 2019 red · McLaren Vale · 750 ml | $23.73 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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