Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chateau Fage Graves de Vayres Bordeaux Blanc 2023 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Marcel Giraudon Aligote 2025 red · 750 ml | $17.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine des Aubuisieres Vouvray Cuvee de Silex 2022 red · Loire · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franzia Fruity Red Sangria red · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | 2% premium | 4% |
| Hook or Crook Cellars Reserve Chardonnay Lodi 2021 white · Lodi · 750 ml | $5.43 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| San Pedro 1865 Select Vineyards Sauvignon Blanc Leyda 2021 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Sterling Vineyards Vintner's Collection Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▼ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +6% if it rises |
| Susana Balbo Wines Signature Cabernet Sauvignon Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warwick The First Lady Sauvignon Blanc Western Cape 2023 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodega El Porvenir Amauta Absoluto Cabernet Sauvignon Cafayette Salta 2020 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cafaggio Basilica del Cortaccio Cabernet Sauvignon Toscana 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castle Rock Sauvignon Blanc California 2020 white · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau de Taillan Haut Medoc Cru Bourgeois 2015 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chop Shop Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Decoy Chardonnay Sonoma County white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Galharda Vinho Tinto Douro red · Douro · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.43 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Josh Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Hearth red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $18.99 Sale | ▲ 5.6% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +5% if it rises |
| Les Fontanelles Chardonnay Pays d'Oc 2020 white · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ruffino Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 5.9% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +4% if it rises |
| Villa de Moreschi Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2022 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Weis Vineyards Unoaked Chardonnay 2024 white · 750 ml | $20.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Shiraz Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 2% premium | 3% |
| All Time Low Presents English Pretty Venom Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2023 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $22.99 $23.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Arbor Mist Sangria Zinfandel red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.23 $10.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Couly Dutheil Les Gravieres Chinon Rouge 2020 red · Loire · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dark Horse Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Erath Pinot Gris white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Liquid Light Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +6% if it rises |
| Pendulum Red Blend Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Recanati Cabernet Sauvignon Galilee 2022 red · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Recanati Chardonnay Upper Galilee 2020 white · 750 ml | $10.73 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Reggio Cantina Donpa Aglianico del Vulture 2018 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rickshaw Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Six Hats Shiraz 2023 red · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Toi Toi Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2021 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Villa Jolanda Moscato and Coconut white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Alki Merlot Wahluke Slope 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Malbec red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Bonterra Vineyards Pinot Gris California white · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $16.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +6% if it rises |
| Cantina Valle Tritana Montepulciano D'Abruzzo 2021 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $5.73 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Paradis Coteaux d'Aix en Provence Rose 2020 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau de l'Aubrade Entre Deux Mers 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Di Giovanna Camurria Orange Sicilia 2024 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $22.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Harvest Ridge Winery Red No 47 red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.03 $17.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Kiona Riesling Columbia Valley 2023 white · Washington · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mulderbosch Sauvignon Blanc Stellenbosch 2023 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.33 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pfeffingen Scheurebe Pfalz Dry 2020 red · Rheinhessen / Pfalz · 750 ml | $7.73 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sorrenti Cherry Valley Vineyards Watermelon Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Southern Belle Red Blend Jumilla 2022 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sterling Vineyards Vintner's Collection Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▼ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +6% if it rises |
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