Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Torbreck Woodcutter's Semillon Barossa Valley 2022 white · Barossa · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ventisquero Grey Glacier Single Block Carmenere Trinidad Vineyard Maipo Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alta Vista Malbec Mendoza Estate 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Badger Mountain Winery NSA Cabernet Sauvignon Organic 2021 red · 750 ml | $5.23 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Barefoot Pink Moscato white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Barefoot on Tap Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.94 $23.89 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Black Box Tart and Tangy Sauvignon Blanc white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +9% if it rises |
| Bogle Vineyards Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Pedesclaux Pauillac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Confetti Sweet Pink Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.4% | Fairly priced | 11% typically +11% if it rises |
| Faustino Art Collection White Rioja 2021 white · Rioja · 750 ml | $7.43 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Italian Christmas Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | ▲ 10.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 12% typically +7% if it rises |
| Kermit Lynch Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Jadot Domaine Gagey Les Beaumonts Chorey Les Beaune Rouge 2020 red · 750 ml | $14.33 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Melville Pinot Noir Estate Sta. Rita Hills 2022 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $11.93 $41.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Merayo Las Tres Filas Mencia Bierzo 2020 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $15.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Natura Organic Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 3.5% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Raphael Sallet Macon Uchizy Les Maranches 2023 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $11.39 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yves Cheron Les Dentelles Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $8.73 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Z Alexander Brown Chardonnay Uncaged white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.49 | ▲ 2.8% | ▲ 15.6% | Fairly priced | 25% typically +4% if it rises |
| le Fat Bastard Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +6% if it rises |
| 689 Cellars Killer Drop Red Wine California 2019 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alexakis Assyrtiko Crete 2021 white · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bedrock Sauvignon Blanc Sonoma Valley 2022 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Big Smooth Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2023 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Biodynamic Petite Syrah Mendocino California 2021 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bomon Shampe Angel Rose Sparkling Wine Semi Sweet sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Box Wize Pinot Noir California red · California Central Valley · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.49 | ▲ 4.5% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +4% if it rises |
| Carlos Serres La Maldita Garnacha Rioja red · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Casa Canevel Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $15.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +3% if it rises |
| Chateau Bouscaut Pessac Leognan Blanc 2018 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $54.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Concha y Toro Frontera Chardonnay white · Rueda / Toro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Cora Pinot Grigio Colline Pescaresi 2021 white · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cusumano Alta Mora Etna Bianco 2020 white · Sicily · 750 ml | $14.73 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Demarie Barolo Classico 2016 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $49.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Lafage Miraflors Rose Cotes Catalanes 2023 rosé · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Les Grands Bois Viognier Cotes du Rhone 2023 white · Rhone · 750 ml | $18.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Francis Coppola Diamond Collection Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.49 | ▲ 2.6% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Isabelle Garrault Les Grands Monts Sancerre Rose 2021 rosé · Loire · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Spinetta Timorasso Derthona 2023 red · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Louis Latour Pouilly Fuisse white · Burgundy · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.73 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Luc Belaire Rare Rose Gift Set rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $26.24 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Lydian GSM Red Blend Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Montes Cherub Rose Colchagua Valley 2022 rosé · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $4.73 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mount Nittany Blush rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.3% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| North Valley Vineyards Reserve Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $10.93 $37.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stel Mar Cabernet Sauvignon Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Ten Sisters Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2022 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Two Vintners Syrah Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warre's Late Bottled Vintage Porto 2010 dessert · Douro · 750 ml | $21.59 $35.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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