Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mom Juice Cabernet Sauvignon Mendocino 2021 red · 750 ml | $16.99 $19.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Shafer TD9 Red Blend Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $41.99 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ampeleia Unlitro Toscana Rosso 2023 red · Tuscany · 1000 ml | $22.99 $24.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Ca dei Frati I Frati Lugana 2023 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dinastia Vivanco Rioja Crianza 2021 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $9.59 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kenwood Cabernet Sauvignon Six Ridges Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.94 $23.89 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lange Estate Winery and Vineyards Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $28.99 $31.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 12% typically +9% if it rises |
| Menage a Trois Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 6.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Montetoro Tinta De Toro Toro Roble 2020 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pagodes de Cos Saint Estephe Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $52.43 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Podere Brizio Brunello di Montalcino 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $69.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Primaterra Pinot Nero Trevenezie 2022 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | ▲ 18.2% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Tenuta dell Ornellaia Ornellaia Bolgheri Superiore 2020 red · Tuscany · 375 ml | $108 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beaux Freres Beaux Freres Pinot Noir Ribbon Ridge Willamette Valley 2019 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $82.43 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| St Francis Old Vines Zinfandel Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.89 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Argyle Nuthouse Pinot Noir Eola Amity Hills 2017 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $29.73 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| BonAnno Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +4% if it rises |
| Chateau D'Arcins Haut Medoc Cru Bourgeois 2016 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Henry Lagarde Malbec Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Notorious Pink Grenache red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Andre Brunel Cuvee Est Ouest Cotes Du Rhone Rouge red · Rhone · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $17.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 10% typically +6% if it rises |
| Masi Costasera Amarone Classico red · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $59.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Montes Classic Cabernet Sauvignon Colchagua Valley 2023 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Once and Future Zinfandel Green and Red Vineyard Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $13.93 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rocky Pond Winery Eleven Dams Bordeaux Blend 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stoller Family Estate Pinot Noir Dundee Hills 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Amity Vineyards Pinot Noir Willamette Valley red · Oregon · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Cairdeas Diffraction Red Blend Washington 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Charles and Charles BOLT Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.24 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Faustino I Grand Reserva Rioja 2011 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $23.99 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Juggernaut Hillside Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Mastroberardino Novaserra Greco di Tufo 2022 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Boekenhoutskloof The Chocolate Block Red Blend Franschhoek 2019 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frederic Esmonin Pinot Noir Clos Prieur Gevrey Chambertin 1er Cru 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $35.73 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Josh Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon 2x750 mL Multipack red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $28.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 16% typically +6% if it rises |
| Murphy Goode Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 2.7% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Pierre Amadieu Romane Machotte Gigondas 2023 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $25.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Recanati Merlot Upper Galilee 2021 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Doisy Daene Barsac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 375 ml | $33.99 $39.99 Sale | ▲ 14.3% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Herdade dos Grous Moon Harvested Red 2022 red · 750 ml | $12.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hiruzta Txakoli Getariako Txakolina 2020 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tabali Pedregoso Carmenere Cachapoal Valley 2023 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Canoe Ridge The Explorer Cabernet Sauvignon Horse Heaven Hills 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau du Petit Thouars L'Epee Chinon Rouge 2018 red · Loire · 750 ml | $11.03 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| English Blood Red Blend Columbia Valley signed by All Time Low 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $14.43 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Louis Jadot Meursault 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Six Hats Derby Cinsault Piekenierskloof 2019 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Boekenhoutskloof The Chocolate Block Red Blend Franschhoek 2020 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $39.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| DuMOL Wester Reach Pinot Noir Russian River Valley 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $22.43 $74.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 16% premium | <1% |
| Montinore Estate L'Orange Willamette Valley 2020 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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