Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natura Cabernet Sauvignon 375 mL red · 375 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.99 $5.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | 1% |
| Richards Wild Irish Rose Red rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.99 | ▲ 14.3% | ▲ 60.1% | 32% below | 2% |
| Buehler Vineyards Chardonnay Russian River Valley 2020 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $10.43 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Castoro Cellars Chardonnay Paso Robles 2022 white · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Mumm Napa Brut Prestige sparkling · Napa Valley · 187 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.49 $6.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | 32% below | 4% |
| Rabble Sauvignon Blanc California 2019 white · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Roaming Dog Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.99 | — | — | 32% below | 1% |
| Villa Divine Grande Reserve Rose Cotes de Provence 2023 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Bodega Benegas Estate Cabernet Franc Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Boutinot Les Coteaux Cotes du Rhone Villages Rouge 2021 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Liberty Creek Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | 32% below | 4% |
| Zuccardi Q Cabernet Franc Valle de Uco 2021 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Castello di Gabbiano Cavaliere d'Oro Chianti Classico Riserva 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32% below | 1% |
| Ruffino Lumina Pinot Grigio white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $10.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | 32% below | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Angels and Cowboys Rose Sonoma County 2023 rosé · Sonoma · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Sun Goddess Prosecco NV sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% below | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Smashberry Red Blend Paso Robles 2018 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 32% below | <1% |
| Zorzettig Friulano Friuli 2021 red · Friuli · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Anna de Codorniu Cava Brut Blanc de Blancs sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Dandelion Winery Dandelion White white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 31% below | 25% typically +5% if it rises |
| Il Badalisc Pinot Grigio Italia white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% below | 1% |
| Liberty Creek Pinot Grigio white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | 31% below | 5% |
| Artesa Estate Vineyard Chardonnay Los Carneros 2017 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $5.63 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Pedra da Auga Albarino Rias Baixas 2024 white · Rias Baixas · 750 ml | $12.99 | — | — | 31% below | 1% |
| Tenuta Ulisse Sogno di Ulisse Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2020 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $2.73 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Unapologetically Zin Zinfandel red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | 6% typically +11% if it rises |
| William Hill Estate Winery Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $17.99 Sale | ▲ 1.7% | ▲ 5.9% | 31% below | 4% |
| Chateau Mayne Guyon Blaye Cotes de Bordeaux Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| M Chapoutier Belleruche Rose Cotes du Rhone 2021 rosé · Rhone · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Kiona Estates Cuvee Columbia Valley Red 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Franzia Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 31% below | 3% |
| Cannonball Cabernet Sauvignon 2022 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 31% below | 1% |
| La Colline Aux Princes Sancerre Blanc 2019 white · Loire · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Quinta da Ribeirinha Rota de Cabral White 2023 white · 750 ml | $5.13 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 31% below | <1% |
| Jacob's Creek Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 17.5% | 30% below | 5% |
| Castle Rock Pinot Noir Monterey County 2018 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $7.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 30% below | <1% |
| Sfigato Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2020 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $6.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 1% |
| Wine in Books Red Organic 2020 red · 3000 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Domaine Loubejac Chardonnay Willamette Valley 2022 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.03 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Fantinel Borgo Tesis Pinot Grigio Friuli white · Friuli · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 9% typically +10% if it rises |
| Lillium Reserve Zinfandel Lodi 2020 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Michael David Winery Red Blend Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.03 $13.29 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | 30% below | 5% |
| Santa Ema Reserva Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo Valley 2019 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Chateau La Negly L'Ecume Rose Languedoc 2021 rosé · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Fess Parker American Traditional Reserve Chardonnay Santa Barbara white · Santa Barbara · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.09 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Generation 1905 Grenache Vin de France 2019 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Les Anges Sauvignon Blanc Loire Valley 2023 white · Loire · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Magnetic Wines Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Black Box Sauvignon Blanc white · 500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 $5.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 30% below | 10% typically +9% if it rises |
| Bodegas David Moreno Rioja 2023 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
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