Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Boya Pinot Noir Leyda Valley 2019 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Cos D'Estournel Saint Estephe Rouge 2021 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $80.93 $270 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Stephane Ogier Le Temps est Venu Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2018 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Josh Cellars Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 $18.99 Sale | ▲ 1.6% | ▲ 5.6% | 13% premium | 4% |
| Kelby James Russell Cabernet Franc Finger Lakes 2021 red · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Recanati Merlot Upper Galilee 2020 red · 750 ml | $13.43 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stark Conde Cabernet Sauvignon Jonkershock Valley Stellenbosch 2018 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $16.79 $27.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Susana Balbo Wines Signature Malbec Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Alexandria Nicole Cellars A2 Cabernet Sauvignon Horse Heaven Hills 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $13.13 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carski Emporia Blatina Mostar 2019 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Bousquet Cabernet Sauvignon Tupungato Reserve red · Mendoza · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Elizabeth Spencer Special Cuvee Cabernet Sauvignon Mendocino 2022 red · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gemma di Luna Red Gem red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Simi Pinot Noir Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Terra Vega Malbec Central Valley 2021 red · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Xumek Abismo Fina La Cienaga Malbec Valle de Zonda 2019 red · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carpineto Brunello di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $20.93 $69.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Kendall Jackson Vintner's Reserve Merlot Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.99 $21.99 Sale | ▲ 5.8% | ▲ 10.0% | 13% premium | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Chateau Clinet Pomerol 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $125 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Malescot Saint Exupery Margaux 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $72.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elmo Pio Chianti red · Tuscany · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.33 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 10.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| R Stuart Love Oregon Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2018 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $27.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Ormes de Pez Saint Estephe 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.43 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Le Chai Duchet Vire Clesse 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Los Vascos Cromas Gran Reserva Carmenere Colchagua Valley 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $23.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| San Polo Brunello di Montalcino 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $38.73 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Pearl Cabernet Sauvignon Coastal Region 2020 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau La Pointe Pomerol 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $75.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Di Majo Norante Sangiovese Terre degli Osci 2021 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Familia Escudero Solar de Becquer Reserva Rioja 2015 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $30.99 $34.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Neleman Wolk Monastrell Especial Valencia 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rabble Cabernet Sauvignon Paso Robles red · Paso Robles · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bodega Piedra Negra Gran Lurton Corte Argentino Los Chacayes 2020 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cavit Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | ▲ 12.5% | ▲ 20.0% | 14% premium | 1% |
| Ruffino Chianti red · Tuscany · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.34 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Haut Bages Liberal Pauillac 2022 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $140 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Chateau Mukhrani Goruli Mtsvane Kartli 2019 red · 750 ml | $11.03 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gundlach Bundschu Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma Valley 2021 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $31.79 $52.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Kendall Jackson Grand Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $25.09 $28.09 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1% | 14% premium | 4% |
| Lindeman's Bin 45 Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.49 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Olema Cabernet Sauvignon Sonoma County 2023 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 7 Deadly Zins Zinfandel Lodi red · Lodi · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 $19.99 Sale | ▼ 3.8% | 0.0% | 14% premium | 5% typically +4% if it rises |
| Chateau Mouton Rothschild Pauillac 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $480 $800 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Foolhardy Vintners FH Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2017 red · Washington · 750 ml | $10.23 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Girard Old Vine Zinfandel Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mastroberardino Greco di Tufo 2022 red · 750 ml | $6.53 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Teofilo Reyes Tempranillo Ribera Del Duero Crianza 2019 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $7.93 $25.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Principe de Viana Crianza Navarra 2021 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jose Zuccardi Malbec Valle de Uco 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.93 $29.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| LEcole No 41 Estate Cabernet Sauvignon Walla Walla Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $14.33 $47.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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