Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandria Nicole Cellars Gravity Merlot Horse Heaven Hills 2016 red · Washington · 750 ml | $12.03 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| B Side Cabernet Sauvignon North Coast red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | 11% premium | 2% |
| Charles Smith The Velvet Devil Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.3% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Fontanabianca Barbaresco Bordini 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $29.99 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hook or Crook Cellars Winemaker's Select Field Blend Lodi 2021 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| St. Urbans Hof Ockfener Bockstein Kabinett 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.53 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Rouget Pomerol 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $79.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Dixie and Bass Columbia Valley Cabernet Sauvignon 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| L'Ecole No 41 Perigee Estate Seven Hills Vineyard Walla Walla Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $16.23 $54.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lapostolle Cuvee Alexandre Carmenere Apalta Valley 2020 red · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Produttori del Barbaresco Barbaresco Riserva Pora 2020 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | 11% premium | 1% |
| Criss Cross Petite Sirah Clarksburg 2017 red · 750 ml | $7.53 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| DaVinci Chianti red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | ▲ 6.3% | ▲ 13.3% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Montgras Antu Single Vineyard Carmenere Cachapoal Valley Block N 16 El Sauce Peumo 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Catena Classic Cabernet Sauvignon Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $23.99 | — | — | 12% premium | 1% |
| Chateau Paillet Quancard Cadillac Cotes de Bordeaux Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 1500 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Col d'Orcia Rosso di Montalcino 2022 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Il Poggione Rosso di Montalcino red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $29.09 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.8% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Kosta Browne Cerise Vineyard Pinot Noir Anderson Valley 2019 red · 750 ml | $90.03 $180 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sterling Vineyards Vintner's Collection Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.43 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▼ 32.5% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Altanza Rioja Reserva 2016 red · Rioja · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Duckhorn Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon Howell Mountain Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $65.73 $110 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Tenuta Ulisse Amaranta di Ulisse Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2020 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 12% premium | <1% |
| Yann Chave Crozes Hermitage Classique 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $20.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Peique Ramon Valle 2021 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bodegas del Rosario 3000 Anos Bullas 2017 red · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cap Royal Cuvee Tradition Bordeaux Superieur Rouge red · Bordeaux · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 $15.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 12% typically +6% if it rises |
| Domaine Marc Morey and Fils En Virondot Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2019 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $130 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Florent Cosme La Motte Vouvray Sec 2019 red · Loire · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Memo Mona Sangiovese Terre di Chieti red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 12% premium | 1% |
| Monte Bernardi Fiasco Vino Rosso red · 1000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| Nickel and Nickel Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Oak Knoll Vaca Vista Vineyard 2019 red · 750 ml | $89.93 $120 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Rocca di Castagnoli Buriano Cabernet Sauvignon Toscana 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $29.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Trefethen Estate Grown Cabernet Sauvignon Oak Knoll District of Napa Valley 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $64.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vigneti di Ettore Amarone della Valpolicella Classico 2018 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bel Ormeau Les Herits Blaye Cotes de Bordeaux Rouge 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Fourcas Dupre Listrac Medoc 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Alary La Gerbaude Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frei Brothers Sonoma Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 $26.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | 12% premium | 5% typically +8% if it rises |
| Girasole Vineyards Pinot Noir Mendocino County 2021 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dixie and Bass Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2018 red · Washington · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Dundee Hills Pinot Noir 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $44.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Philippe Portier Quincy 2022 red · 750 ml | $13.79 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dr Konstantin Frank Cabernet Franc 2019 red · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Josh Cellars Cabernet Sauvignon Reserve Aged in Bourbon Barrels red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.89 $22.89 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 4.1% | Fairly priced | 38% typically +4% if it rises |
| La Nerthe Les Cassagnes Cotes du Rhone Villages Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $12.03 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Saint Cosme Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Addendum Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2017 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.93 $89.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ava Grace Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.23 $11.39 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 14.0% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Ca dei Frati I Frati Lugana 2020 red · Veneto · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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