Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Warwick The First Lady Dry Rose Western Cape 2023 rosé · Western Cape · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Werewolf Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 22.2% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Zilzie Cabernet Sauvignon Victoria 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zuccardi Serie A Bonarda Santa Rosa Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 14 Hands Sauvignon Blanc Columbia Valley white · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Biutiful Cava Brut Rose sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 25.0% | Fairly priced | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Black Box Brilliant Collection Pinot Grigio white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 5% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bodegas Etchart Cafayate Terroir De Altura Cabernet Sauvignon Salta 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Boya Sauvignon Blanc Leyda Valley 2021 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Briganti Montepulciano d'Abruzzo red · Abruzzo · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Clover Hill Vineyards and Winery Turtle Rock Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.49 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Jawbreaker Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Madame Liberte Sparkling Brut sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.53 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Marques de Toro Mencia Finca La Moura Castilla y Leon 2021 red · Rueda / Toro · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Poggio Anima Raphael Rosato Sicilia 2021 rosé · Sicily · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Salvatore Molettieri Ischia Piana Irpinia Rosso 2018 red · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Simply Riesling Washington State 2021 white · Washington · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sweet Bitch Pineapple Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 $12.99 Sale | ▼ 3.7% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Three Thieves Chardonnay California white · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.29 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 24% typically +4% if it rises |
| Villa de Moreschi Pinot Grigio delle Venezie 2021 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Yellow Tail Big Bold Red red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 0% premium | 3% |
| Yellow Tail Frest Twist Strawberry and Lime Rose rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $2.43 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Yellow Tail Jammy Red Roo red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | 0% premium | 3% |
| Yellow Tail Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.29 $8.29 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 5% |
| Board Track Racer Cabernet Sauvignon Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cellers Kripta Franc Brut Reserva Cava 2019 sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml | $11.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Fleur Haut Gaussens Bordeaux Superieur Rouge 2015 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cliff Lede Sauvignon Blanc Napa Valley 2019 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ethic Drinks Let It Bee Chardonnay Vin de France 2023 white · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jawbreaker Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Ken Forrester Petit Pinotage Stellenbosch 2023 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lutra Vinho Tinto Tejo 2023 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Menage a Trois Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Mon Frere Chardonnay 2022 white · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Pacific Rim Wicked Good Red Columbia Valley red · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.23 $12.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Periquita Red Peninsula de Setubal red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Poggio Anima Samael Montepulciano d'Abruzzo red · Abruzzo · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +23% if it rises |
| Portlandia Pinot Gris 2022 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Warwick The First Lady Dry Rose South Africa 2022 rosé · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.53 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Westmount Chardonnay Willamette Valley 2021 white · Oregon · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Baron Herzog Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Col d'Orcia Spezieri Toscana 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $4.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dila O Rkatsiteli Mtsvane Dry Amber Wine Georgia 2023 red · 750 ml | $13.99 $16.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Kuentz Bas Alsace Blanc 2020 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $8.73 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| EG by Educated Guess Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Ethic Drinks Let It Bee Cabernet Sauvignon 2023 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Fish Eye Chardonnay white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 15.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Imagery Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 25% typically +4% if it rises |
| LEcole No 41 Chenin Blanc Old Vines Yakima Valley 2022 white · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lavis Sauvignon Blanc Trevenezia 2024 white · 750 ml | $8.99 $9.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
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