Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow Tail Pink Moscato white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| 19 Crimes Cali Chill Chillable Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +8% if it rises |
| Big House Wine Co Birdman Pinot Grigio white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $23.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 9.1% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Bota Box Breeze Sauvignon Blanc white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 $24.99 Sale | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Budureasca Vine In Flames Pinot Gris Romania 2019 white · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Casa Canevel Prosecco Rose 2020 sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Casa Canevel Prosecco Rose 2021 sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Castle Rock Rose of Pinot Noir Monterey County 2023 rosé · Monterey · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cave and Cove Pink Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 11.9% | Fairly priced | 19% typically +5% if it rises |
| Chateau de Chantegrive Caroline Graves Blanc 2024 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $24.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Culitos Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 4.0% | ▲ 30.0% | Fairly priced | 14% typically +6% if it rises |
| Educated Guess Cabernet Sauvignon Napa County 2019 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $22.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Forge Cellars Caywood Dry Riesling Finger Lakes 2021 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| GD Vajra Dolcetto d'Alba 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Game Box Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.89 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| LifeVine Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.63 $18.69 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Lutra Vinho Branco Tejo 2024 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Martini and Rossi Asti sparkling · Piedmont · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +7% if it rises |
| Mastroberardino Aglianico Irpinia 2020 red · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Red Newt Cellars Dry Riesling Finger Lakes 2018 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Simply Riesling Washington 2022 white · Washington · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sorrenti Cherry Valley Vineyards Raspberry Blush rosé · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 16% typically +6% if it rises |
| Taylor Sherry Cream dessert · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | ▲ 9.5% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +7% if it rises |
| The Path Cabernet Sauvignon California red · California Central Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.23 $8.29 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Tiefenbrunner Pinot Grigio Vigneti delle Dolomiti 2020 white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Vignobles Bulliat Cremant de Bourgogne Brut Nature sparkling · Burgundy · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 5.6% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Villa Sparina Gavi di Gavi 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Zorgvliet Cabernet Sauvignon Banghoek Stellenbosch Estate 2019 red · Western Cape · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Arbor Mist Exotic Fruits White Zinfandel rosé · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Barnard Griffin Pinot Gris Columbia Valley 2021 white · Washington · 750 ml | $3.73 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Block Nine Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +7% if it rises |
| Canonica a Cerreto Chianti Classico 2016 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cappella Sant'Andre Clara Stella Vernaccia di San Gimignano 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castoro Cellars Merlot Paso Robles 2020 red · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $10.73 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Souverain Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Les Grands Bois Viognier Cotes du Rhone Blanc 2021 white · Rhone · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de la Tourmaline Muscadet Sevre et Maine Sur Lie 2020 white · Loire · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elmo Pio Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 187 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 | ▲ 1.6% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +12% if it rises |
| Ethic Drinks Peau A Peau Orange Vin de France 2023 red · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Franzia Chablis white · Burgundy · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Gelida Brut Reserva Pinot Noir Rose Cava 2022 sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml | $19.99 $21.99 Sale | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Girard Chardonnay Carneros 2022 white · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $21.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Loubadere Cotes de Gascogne Blanc 2022 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Maison Nicolas Idiart Pouilly Fume white · Loire · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +5% if it rises |
| Morande Vitis Unica Pinot Noir Valle de Casablanca 2021 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nine Hats Riesling Columbia Valley 2021 white · Washington · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.49 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 7% typically +6% if it rises |
| Tribute Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| XXL Strawberry and Grapes Moscato white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| Yellow Tail Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.33 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
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