Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yellow Tail Cabernet Sauvignon red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| 9 is Enough Primitivo Rosato Puglia rosé · Puglia · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 11% typically +5% if it rises |
| Affentaler Pinot Noir Rose Baden 2021 rosé · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Black Box Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | — | Fairly priced | 8% typically +4% if it rises |
| Bogle Vineyards Essential Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bota Box Breeze Red Blend red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 19.1% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bota Box Cabernet Sauvignon red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | ▲ 8.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Casas Del Bosque Sauvignon Blanc Casablanca Reserva 2021 white · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $7.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castle Rock Merlot California 2022 red · California Central Valley · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Cupcake Vineyards Chardonnay Monterey County white · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▼ 7.1% | ▲ 8.3% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Decoy Sauvignon Blanc Sonoma County white · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| El Porvenir Amauta Absoluto Torrontes Cafayate Salta 2021 white · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Elijah by Manischewitz Cabernet Sauvignon Curico Valley 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Hahn Merlot Central Coast red · Central Coast · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hermann J Wiemer Dry Riesling Seneca Lake 2022 white · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $13.19 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lunardi Pinot Grigio Delle Venezie 2021 white · Veneto · 750 ml | $7.43 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mastroberardino Lacryma Christi Bianco 2022 white · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Nine Hats Merlot Columbia Valley 2016 red · Washington · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Overstone Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2023 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $8.39 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penya Viognier Cotes Catalanes 2021 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Penya Viognier Cotes Catalanes 2022 white · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Peter Vella Delicious Blush rosé · 5000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $20.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 16.7% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +9% if it rises |
| Six Hats South Africa Chardonnay 2024 white · Western Cape · 750 ml | $7.19 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sobon Estate Viognier Amador County 2023 white · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wilhelm Walch Prendo Pinot Grigio Vignetti delle Dolomiti white · Trentino-Alto Adige · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Windisch Dornfelder Wormser Liebfrauenmorgen 2024 red · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Yellow Tail Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.59 | 0.0% | ▲ 4.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Barefoot On Tap Chardonnay white · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 4.2% | ▲ 8.7% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Barefoot Red Moscato white · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $14.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Barefoot Riesling white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 12.5% | Fairly priced | 7% typically +11% if it rises |
| Barnard Griffin Chardonnay Columbia Valley 2020 white · Washington · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Etchart Cafayate Terroir De Altura Malbec Salta 2020 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Castlepoint Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $13.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Bellevue Peycharneau Sainte Foy Cotes de Bordeaux Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Gabaron Bordeaux Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cusumano Alta Mora Etna Rosso 2019 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Skouras Zoe White Peloponnese 2020 white · 750 ml | $4.13 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dunham Cellars Sauvignon Blanc Columbia Valley 2022 white · Washington · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Florio Vecchioflorio Marsala Superiore Sweet dessert · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | ▲ 7.1% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 9% typically +3% if it rises |
| Hahn Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 $15.99 Sale | ▼ 11.1% | ▼ 5.9% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Havens Black and Blue Red Blend 2021 red · 1500 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Jean Claude Mas L'Artisan Le Chardonnay Pays dOc 2021 white · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lamblin et Fils Petit Chablis 2023 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $14.99 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mazza Vineyards Bare Bones Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Noble Vines Marquis Red red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.49 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Pedroncelli Mother Clone Zinfandel Dry Creek Valley 2020 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $11.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Planet Oregon Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2021 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $6.93 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Smoking Loon Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.39 | 0.0% | ▲ 14.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Txomin Etxaniz Rose Getariako Txakolina 2024 rosé · 750 ml | $17.99 $19.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Wine Chat A Grown Up Stocking Stuffer Red red · 187 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 25.1% | Fairly priced | 20% typically +5% if it rises |
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