Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Elephant Seven Mix Red Blend Walla Walla 2022 red · Washington · 750 ml | $5.33 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Grgich Hills Estate Napa Valley Merlot 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $23.03 $46.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| 111 Red Blend Navarra 2021 red · 750 ml | $6.63 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 30% below | <1% |
| Blackstone Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.49 $9.49 Sale | ▲ 5.6% | ▼ 20.9% | 29% below | 2% |
| Vina Gormaz Ribera del Duero Crianza 2016 red · Ribera del Duero · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Beaulieu Vineyard Reserve Tapestry Red Wine Napa Valley 2020 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Silver Totem Red Blend Columbia Valley 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Vina Santa Rita Medalla Real Gold Medal Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo 2018 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Domaine Drouhin Oregon Roserock Pinot Noir Eola Amity Hills Willamette Valley 2018 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $20.93 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29% below | <1% |
| Taylor Lake Country Red red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.53 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 20.0% | 29% below | 2% |
| Grochau Cellars Le Rouleur Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Tenuta Ulisse Sogno di Ulisse Montepulciano d'Abruzzo 2021 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $5.39 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Dominio de Eguren Protocolo Vino Tinto de la Tierra de Castilla 2023 red · 750 ml | $7.99 $8.99 Sale | — | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Espiritu de Chile Intrepido Cabernet Sauvignon Reserva 2022 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $5.99 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Merryvale Pinot Noir Carneros Napa Valley 2018 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $37.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Rex Goliath Shiraz red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $3.74 $7.49 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 29% below | 3% |
| Susana Balbo Wines Crios Malbec Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $13.99 | — | — | 29% below | 1% |
| Cave la Comtadine Bouquet Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2020 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Domaine Guy Amiot et Fils Les Champgains Chassagne Montrachet 1er Cru 2020 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $99.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Lodi Ave Cellars Petite Sirah Lodi 2020 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Le Petit Haut Lafitte Pessac Leognan Rouge 2020 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $44.99 | 0.0% | — | 29% below | <1% |
| Fattoria Felsina Chianti Colli Senesi 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.59 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Trivento Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.99 $10.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | 28% below | 9% typically +9% if it rises |
| 111 Red Blend Navarra 2023 red · 750 ml | $8.99 | — | — | 28% below | 1% |
| Borealis Vintners Pinot Noir Oregon 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $15.99 | — | — | 28% below | 1% |
| 111 Cabernet Sauvignon Navarra 2022 red · 750 ml | $8.99 | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Annabella Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley red · Napa Valley · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $21.99 | ▼ 31.3% | — | 28% below | 11% typically +4% if it rises |
| Borealis Vintners Pinot Noir Oregon 2020 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Altesino Brunello di Montalcino 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $64.99 | 0.0% | — | 28% below | 1% |
| Chateau Jeremie Corbieres Rouge 2021 red · Languedoc-Roussillon · 750 ml | $7.43 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Oak Leaf Vineyards Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $5.99 | 0.0% | — | 28% below | 7% typically +10% if it rises |
| Trail Box Cabernet Sauvignon California red · California Central Valley · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $7.79 $15.59 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | 1% |
| Cellier des Princes Couronne du Prince Cotes du Rhone Rouge 2019 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $5.73 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Casillero del Diablo Seleccion Semi Sweet Red Central Valley 2022 red · 750 ml | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 28% below | 1% |
| Paniza Garnacha from Slate Carinena 2018 red · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Pinhal da Torre Alqueve Red 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.73 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 28% below | <1% |
| Mendoza Vineyards Chamuyo Malbec Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $3.53 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 27% below | <1% |
| San Felice Chianti Classico red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 27% below | 8% typically +5% if it rises |
| Santa Julia Juli Red Blend Mendoza 2021 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 27% below | <1% |
| Walla Walla Vintners Woven Fields Red Blend Columbia Valley 2021 red · Washington · 750 ml | $11.73 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 27% below | <1% |
| Argento Cabernet Franc Mendoza Estate Reserve 2019 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $7.53 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 27% below | <1% |
| Beringer Founders' Estate Pinot Noir red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.49 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | 27% below | 1% |
| Arbor Mist Blackberry Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 27.3% | 27% below | 6% typically +9% if it rises |
| Henry Lagarde Teia Red Blend 2023 red · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | 27% below | <1% |
| Scarpetta Toscana Frico Sangiovese 2024 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $9.99 | — | — | 27% below | 1% |
| WT Vintners Syrah Columbia Valley 2020 red · Washington · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% below | <1% |
| Castello di Querceto Chianti Classico 2019 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% below | 1% |
| Domaine Latour Giraud Caillerets Meursault 1er Cru Rouge 2017 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $89.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% below | <1% |
| Dr Pauly Bernkasteler Estate QbA Mosel Trocken 2021 red · Mosel · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | 26% below | <1% |
| 19 Crimes the Bride of Frankenstein Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | — | 26% below | 6% typically +10% if it rises |
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