Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Memo Mona Sangiovese Abruzzo 2021 red · Abruzzo · 750 ml | $3.93 $13.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Orin Swift Machete 2020 red · 750 ml | $19.93 $64.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Santa Ema Select Terroir Cabernet Sauvignon Maipo Valley Reserva 2020 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stemmari Nero d'Avola red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.74 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 22.7% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Sutter Home Cabernet Sauvignon 2x1.5 L Multipack red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $24.99 | ▲ 8.7% | ▲ 25.0% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Beringer Bros Red Blend Bourbon Barrel Aged red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $18.69 | 0.0% | ▲ 3.9% | 4% premium | 8% typically +9% if it rises |
| Bota Box Nighthawk Black Lush Pinot Noir red · 3000 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 $24.99 Sale | ▲ 4.2% | ▲ 8.7% | Fairly priced | 19% typically +4% if it rises |
| Castelli del Grevepesa Sasso del Falco Chianti Classico 2022 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Castle Rock Zinfandel Lodi 2021 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $2.93 $9.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cusumano Nero d'Avola Sicilia red · Sicily · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaines Barons de Rothschild Lafite Los Vascos Cromas Cabernet Sauvignon Colchagua Gran Res 2018 red · Chile Central Valley · 750 ml | $18.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Four Vines The Biker Zinfandel 2021 red · 750 ml | $10.79 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| 19 Crimes Shiraz red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 $12.99 Sale | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Alta Vista Estate Atemporal Red Blend Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Grain de Lune Sauvignon Gris Bordeaux 2023 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $2.93 $8.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jaffurs Wine Cellars Syrah Santa Barbara County 2022 red · Santa Barbara · 750 ml | $19.79 $32.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jean Claude Mas Chateau de Conas Le Moulin Malbec Reserve 2020 red · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ken Wright Cellars Pinot Noir Yamhill Carlton 2022 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $11.93 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Posta Pizzella Malbec Uco Valley Mendoza 2020 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Menage a Trois Midnight Dark Red Blend red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 7.1% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Novelty Hill Columbia Valley Merlot 2019 red · Washington · 750 ml | $7.93 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Storypoint Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.29 $16.59 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Arado Malbec Salta red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $8.23 $13.49 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Borsao Berola Red Campo de Borja 2019 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Concha y Toro Frontera Cabernet Sauvignon Merlot red · Rueda / Toro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Dievole Chianti Classico 2021 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $7.43 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Vetriccie Red Corse 2020 red · 750 ml | $3.73 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Terre Stregate Svelato Falanghina del Sannio 2020 red · 750 ml | $8.53 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Vinum Cellars Petite Syrah Clarksburg 2021 red · 750 ml | $16.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Assuli Lorlando Nero d'Avola Sicilia 2019 red · Sicily · 750 ml | $3.93 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Cantina del Taburno Fidelis Aglianico Taburno 2017 red · 750 ml | $4.93 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Carlos Serres Reserva Rioja red · Rioja · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +6% if it rises |
| Castello di Meleto Chianti Classico Riserva 2020 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $11.99 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Fourcas Dupre Listrac Medoc 2018 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Concha y Toro Frontera Merlot red · Rueda / Toro · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $12.99 | ▲ 8.3% | ▲ 18.2% | Fairly priced | 2% |
| Durigutti Malbec Mendoza 2022 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $8.99 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Freakshow Cabernet Sauvignon red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $19.99 | 0.0% | ▼ 13.0% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +5% if it rises |
| Janare Benevento Aglianico Campania red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Post and Beam Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2023 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $54.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Tait The Ball Buster Red Blend Barossa Valley 2022 red · Barossa · 750 ml | $19.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Butcher's Daughter Cabernet Sauvignon Pays DOc 2020 red · 750 ml | $5.73 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Kirwan Margaux 2022 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $75.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Diora La Petite Grace Pinot Noir Monterey 2019 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $11.53 $22.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine Skouras Zoe Red Peloponnese 2024 red · 750 ml | $14.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Thomas Saint Veran Tradition 2021 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $12.53 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Fattoria del Pino Rosso di Montalcino 2018 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $14.73 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Frei Brothers Sonoma Reserve Pinot Noir Russian River Valley red · Sonoma · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 $26.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 3.8% | Fairly priced | 5% typically +8% if it rises |
| GD Vajra Barbera d'Alba 2021 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $21.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Outerbound Reserve Cabernet Sauvignon Alexander Valley 2019 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $17.93 $59.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Saxon Brown Fighting Brothers Zinfandel Sonoma Valley 2015 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $20.03 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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