Pennsylvania state store prices · 2016 to today
Wine prices, tracked and forecast
Ten years of official shelf prices for 31,256 wines, and a model that estimates each bottle's chance of a price rise or cut over the next year.
How often list prices change
2.8%
of wines get a new list price in a typical quarter, so the real question is which ones will move
How well the model spots upcoming price rises
0.891 next quarter
0.84 over a year. This is ranking accuracy, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC AUC): 1.0 is perfect, 0.5 is a coin flip.
Model
hgbq-20260928-160312
Trained on data through 2026-07-01
Wines whose shelf price is furthest below their fair price: what comparable wines cost, estimated from the region, grape, classification, age, bottle size, name and the producer's other wines, by a model that never saw the wine's own price. The biggest gaps are often a famous producer's second or entry-level wines: the model knows the producer's overall price level but can't always tell where a wine sits within its range.
| Wine | Shelf price | 1yr History | 5yr History | vs fair price | Chance of a rise within a year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brancott Flight Song Sauvignon Blanc 2022 white · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Christian Bourmault Hermance Brut Champagne sparkling · Champagne · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $13.73 $45.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Familia Zuccardi Q Chardonnay Uco Valley 2021 white · Mendoza · 750 ml | $4.23 $14.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Herencia Cabernet Sauvignon Mendoza 2023 red · Mendoza · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Lamblin et Fils Chablis Vieilles Vignes 2019 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $24.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Menage a Trois Chardonnay white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $6.49 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Villa Wolf Pinot Gris Pfalz 2022 white · Rheinhessen / Pfalz · 750 ml | $12.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Westmount Pinot Noir Willamette Valley 2020 red · Oregon · 750 ml | $10.03 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bodegas Enguera Green Merits Tempranillo Bobal 2023 red · 750 ml | $10.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| CK Mondavi Family Vineyards Merlot red · 1500 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $4.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | ▲ 6.7% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Castoro Cellars Estate Grown Sauvignon Blanc Paso Robles 2023 white · Paso Robles · 750 ml | $9.73 $15.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Liversan Haut Medoc Cru Bourgeois 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $10.73 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine William Fevre Montmains Chablis 1er Cru 2022 white · Burgundy · 750 ml | $47.99 $79.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine du Clos des Poulettes Vierville Cotes de Nuits Village Rouge 2021 red · 750 ml | $19.19 $31.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Girard Chardonnay Russian River Valley 2018 white · Sonoma · 750 ml | $5.93 $21.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Jaume Serra Bouquet Brut Cava sparkling · Penedes (Cava) · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| La Scolca Gavi 2022 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $4.93 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| La Spinona Barbaresco Secondine 2016 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $37.43 $49.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Mongarda Glera Colli Trevigiani Col Fondo 2019 red · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Stella Rosa Naturals Sparkling Cranberry Nonalcoholic sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 6% typically +6% if it rises |
| Willm Pinot Gris Alsace Reserve 2021 white · Alsace · 750 ml | $17.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Beringer Founders' Estate Merlot red · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | ▲ 15.4% | Fairly priced | 3% |
| Calculated Risk Barrel Selection Cabernet Sauvignon Napa Valley 2023 red · Napa Valley · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Chateau Ste Michelle Dry Riesling Columbia Valley white · Washington · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $10.99 $13.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 7.7% | Fairly priced | 6% typically +8% if it rises |
| Domaine de Suremain Clos l'Eveque Pinot Noir Mercurey 1er Cru 2022 red · Burgundy · 750 ml | $25.19 $41.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Fattoria le Pupile Morrelino di Scansano 2023 red · 750 ml | $10.19 $16.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Gai'a Notios Assyrtiko Peloponnese Greece White 2023 white · 750 ml | $16.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Greywacke Sauvignon Blanc Marlborough 2024 white · Marlborough · 750 ml | $19.99 $21.99 Sale | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Hess Select Sauvignon Blanc white · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $14.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 9% typically +7% if it rises |
| Ruffino Ducale Chianti Classico Riserva red · Tuscany · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $22.99 $24.99 Sale | 0.0% | ▲ 4.2% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| The Hare and The Tortise Pinot Noir Yarra Valley 2021 red · 750 ml | $9.53 $18.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| The McNab by Bonterra Cabernet Sauvignon McNab Ranch Vineyard Mendocino County 2021 red · 750 ml | $39.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Bersano Mirage Gavi di Gavi 2023 red · Piedmont · 750 ml | $3.93 $12.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Bojador Rose 2023 rosé · 750 ml | $3.93 $11.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Domaine de l'Olivette Cotes de Provence Rose 2023 rosé · Provence · 750 ml | $5.93 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| First Drop Wines Mother's Ruin Cabernet Sauvignon McLaren Vale 2018 red · McLaren Vale · 750 ml | $5.93 $19.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Il Molino di Grace Chianti Classico Riserva 2017 red · Tuscany · 750 ml | $7.23 $24.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Robert Mondavi Winery Cabernet Sauvignon Monterey County Aged in Bourbon Barrels red · Monterey · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $15.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 4% |
| Silver Trail Pinot Noir Lodi 2021 red · Lodi · 750 ml | $10.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Talbott Sleepy Hollow Vineyard Pinot Noir Santa Lucia Highlands 2017 red · Monterey · 750 ml | $20.03 $39.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Angels and Cowboys Proprietary Red Blend Sonoma County 2018 red · Sonoma · 750 ml | $19.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Ca Furlan Prosecco Rose Brut Cuvee Mariana 2024 sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml | $11.99 | — | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Charles Roux Blanc de Blancs Brut sparkling · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $11.49 | 0.0% | ▲ 27.8% | Fairly priced | 10% typically +12% if it rises |
| Chateau Carbonnieux Pessac Leognan Blanc 2020 white · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $27.03 $51.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Chateau Daviaud Bordeaux Rouge 2019 red · Bordeaux · 750 ml | $11.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Clos des Brusquieres Chateauneuf du Pape Rouge 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $56.99 | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | 1% |
| Domaine Christophe Mittnacht Gyotaku 2023 red · 750 ml | $7.93 $23.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| Dr Konstantin Frank Gewurtztraminer Finger Lakes 2023 red · Finger Lakes · 750 ml | $6.03 $17.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
| I Castelli Prosecco sparkling · Veneto · 750 ml · non-vintage or vintage not listed | $9.99 | 0.0% | 0.0% | Fairly priced | 18% typically +22% if it rises |
| JL Chave Selections Offerus Saint Joseph 2022 red · Rhone · 750 ml | $10.43 $34.99 Clearance | 0.0% | — | Fairly priced | <1% |
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